---
title: Next Unemployment Rate Release Date & Forecast
description: "Next US unemployment rate release date and time (first Friday, 8:30 AM ET), consensus forecast, and how the jobless rate moves bond yields."
source: Helious
canonical: "https://helious.io/data/unemployment-rate"
---

# Unemployment Rate: release dates, results and history


    Unemployment Rate last printed 4.2% on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 against a 4.1% consensus forecast and a 4.1% prior, a +0.77 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.

    The rate comes out of the household survey, a survey of people rather than the count of jobs on payrolls, so the two can pull apart badly. When they do, the rate is usually what everyone ends up talking about. A 0.2pp rise gets more airtime than a 100k payroll miss. It is also the number the Sahm rule reads for a recession trigger, and the employment half of the Fed's dual mandate runs through it.


    NEXT RELEASE
    Released monthly, first friday with nonfarm payrolls, usually around 8:30 AM ET. The desk posts the print the second it lands.





      LATEST PRINT: FRI, OCT 2, 2026

        4.2%actual

        4.1%forecast
        4.1%prior
        +0.77std dev vs forecastSLIGHT BEAT

      [Full print analysis →](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-c73e367c2f21eca9/unemployment-rate-4-2)



      Surprise vs forecast


      +0.77
      std dev
      SLIGHT BEAT










      -2-10+1+2



        Printed above forecast. That gap is 0.77 times the size of a normal gap for this indicator.





## The trend



        OFFICIAL SERIES · LAST 36 OBSERVATIONS · %





    4.50%4.10%3.70%



  2023-092026-09

      The official published series at its current vintage, revisions included, so the newest point can differ from the number as first printed. The release-by-release history, with the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise on every row, comes through the [Helious API](https://helious.io/developers/).





## How it moves Treasuries

    Treasuries rally when the rate comes in above forecast, because more slack in the labor market brings Fed cuts closer. A single tenth of a point above consensus can do it when the market is already leaning toward easing, and the rally lands hardest at the front end, in the shortest maturities. See it scored live on the [Helious desk](https://helious.io/),
    or read [how the standard-deviation surprise is computed](https://helious.io/methodology).






## Recent prints, as captured by the desk


      DATEACTUALFORECASTPRIORSURPRISE (SD)PRINT


      Fri, Oct 2, 2026Oct 2 ’26
      4.2%
      4.1%
      4.1%
      +0.77
      [ABOVE FORECAST](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-c73e367c2f21eca9/unemployment-rate-4-2)



      Fri, Sep 4, 2026Sep 4 ’26
      4.1%
      4.1%
      4.1%
      0.00
      [ON THE SCREWS](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-ce8e68b0e20a686d/unemployment-rate-4-1)



      Fri, Aug 7, 2026Aug 7 ’26
      4.1%
      4.2%
      4.2%
      -0.77
      [BELOW FORECAST](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-1fab0f34c89250ff/unemployment-rate-4-1)



      Thu, Jul 2, 2026Jul 2 ’26
      4.2%
      4.3%
      4.3%
      -0.77
      [BELOW FORECAST](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-2f7e8edf0c7cf49a/unemployment-rate-4-2)


    The 4 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the [API](https://helious.io/developers/).






## Official series history


      PERIODVALUE (%)PRIORCHANGE

        2026-09-01
        4.2%

        4.1%
        +0.1%
        2026-08-01
        4.1%

        4.1%
        +0.0%
        2026-07-01
        4.1%

        4.2%
        -0.1%
        2026-06-01
        4.2%

        4.3%
        -0.1%
        2026-05-01
        4.3%

        4.3%
        +0.0%
        2026-04-01
        4.3%

        4.3%
        +0.0%
        2026-03-01
        4.3%

        4.4%
        -0.1%
        2026-02-01
        4.4%

        4.3%
        +0.1%


    These are the most recent official
    rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up
    the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment
    each number landed.






## Related indicators




      Monthly, first Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls · 8:30 AM ET ·
      [download a sample (CSV, recent rows)](https://helious.io/data/unemployment-rate.csv), free to cite with a link to this page.
      The full history comes through the [Helious API](https://helious.io/developers/) and
      MCP at [api.helious.io/mcp](https://api.helious.io/mcp), with depth set by plan.


    [Catch the next print live →](https://helious.io/)