--- title: Economic releases, Treasury auctions & daily briefs description: Every US economic release with its σ surprise and measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the Helious daily brief, as it happens. source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/news" --- US 2Y **4.83%** +5.0bpUS 5Y **5.06%** +5.0bpUS 10Y **5.28%** +4.0bpUS 30Y **5.63%** +2.0bp2s10s **47bp** steepeningFED FUNDS **3.75%** +12.0bpVIX **15.31** -1.08DXY **121.3848** -0.403HY OAS **3.1%** -14bpUS 2Y **4.83%** +5.0bpUS 5Y **5.06%** +5.0bpUS 10Y **5.28%** +4.0bpUS 30Y **5.63%** +2.0bp2s10s **47bp** steepeningFED FUNDS **3.75%** +12.0bpVIX **15.31** -1.08DXY **121.3848** -0.403HY OAS **3.1%** -14bp # Latest desk notes US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen. [ALL DESK NOTES](https://helious.io/news) [AUCTIONS](https://helious.io/news?tab=auctions) [DATA](https://helious.io/news?tab=data) [FED SPEAK](https://helious.io/news?tab=fed) [ Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 2.7 ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Oct 2026, 06:02 UTC Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): Actual 2.7, prev 13.1. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-0b5f4e56a513cb05/germany-factory-orders-n-s-a-yoy-2-7) [ Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): -10.6 ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): Actual -10.6, forecast -1, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-f4d02c06c98d75d6/germany-factory-orders-s-a-mom-10-6) [ Treasuries Slump Pushes Long-End Yields to Fresh 24-Year Highs, 10s +4bp · Mon 05 Oct 2026 DAILY BRIEF 05 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC Treasuries (close 2026-10-02): 2s 4.83% (+5.0bp), 10s 5.28% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.63% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-02): VIX 15.31, 2s10s +45bp. ](https://helious.io/news/brief-2026-10-05/treasuries-slump-pushes-long-end-yields-to-fresh-24-year) [ 26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE TREASURY AUCTION 05 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC . $82B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.76), high 4.165% (inv 4.314%), indirect 63.2% (avg 58.0), direct 10.6% (avg 9.4), dealer 26.2% (avg 32.6). ](https://helious.io/news/auc-912797WU7-2026-10-05/26-week-6-month-bill-auction-in-line) [ 13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: WEAK TREASURY AUCTION 05 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC . $95B on offer, B/C 2.51 (avg 2.81), high 4.050% (inv 4.149%), indirect 48.6% (avg 56.5), direct 7.2% (avg 7.6), dealer 44.2% (avg 35.9). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/auc-912797VS3-2026-10-05/13-week-3-month-bill-auction-weak) [ Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.0% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1% ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.0%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-05. ](https://helious.io/news/macro-clevnow-2026-10-05/cleveland-fed-inflation-nowcast-q4-cpi-4-0-core-cpi-2-6-pce) [ ISM Services Prices Paid: 74.0 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC ISM Services Prices Paid: Actual 74.0, prev 72.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-5c1dff693cad0dd9/ism-services-prices-paid-74-0) [ ISM Services New Orders Index: 59.8 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC ISM Services New Orders Index: Actual 59.8, prev 60.9. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-ba89962ac66606ee/ism-services-new-orders-index-59-8) [ ISM Services Employment Index: 50.1 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC ISM Services Employment Index: Actual 50.1, prev 47.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-6e25863f741b31c9/ism-services-employment-index-50-1) [ ISM Services PMI: 54.9 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC ISM Services PMI: Actual 54.9, forecast 55, prev 55.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-b7993c95ceb3cbd3/ism-services-pmi-54-9) [ S&P Global Composite PMI: 58.4 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 13:46 UTC S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 58.4, forecast 58.4, prev 58.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-23c9cde2fb3075a3/s-p-global-composite-pmi-58-4) [ S&P Global Services PMI: 58.8 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 13:46 UTC S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 58.8, forecast 58.7, prev 58.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-5766dc65ac6f2d15/s-p-global-services-pmi-58-8) [ Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.5B (+$1.2B d/d) ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 12:07 UTC Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-02: 3.88% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-02: $1.5B (prior day $0.3B). ](https://helious.io/news/macro-sofr-2026-10-02/money-markets-sofr-3-88-1bp-fed-on-rrp-1-5b-1-2b-d-d) [ Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY): 8.2 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 8.2, prev 5.8. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-e0a99037e375313b/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-8-2) [ Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.9 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.9, forecast 1.9, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-df3433d6a0dd9534/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-1-9) [ Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: 2.7 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: Actual 2.7, prev 5.1. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-a2ed31c35fe20481/eurozone-sentix-investor-confidence-2-7) [ Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.1 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.1, forecast 53.1, prev 53.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-989c60d03a331843/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-53-1) [ Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 52.9 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 07:55 UTC Germany · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 52.9, forecast 52.9, prev 52.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-3ebdc6deed37619e/germany-hcob-services-pmi-52-9) [ Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.8 ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Oct 2026, 07:55 UTC Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.8, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-6ae5884f1d5e4d17/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-53-8) [ Week ahead: ISM Services PMI Monday, FOMC Minutes Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 05 Oct 2026 DAILY BRIEF 04 Oct 2026, 18:10 UTC The week of Monday 05 October 2026 has 21 scheduled US events, 3 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions. ](https://helious.io/news/week-ahead-2026-w41/week-ahead-ism-services-pmi-monday-fomc-minutes-wednesday) [ Nasdaq hits record high after weaker-than-expected US jobs report – bu, 10s -5bp · Fri 02 Oct 2026 DAILY BRIEF 02 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC Treasuries (close 2026-10-01): 2s 4.78% (-10.0bp), 10s 5.24% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.61% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-01): VIX 16.39, 2s10s +46bp. ](https://helious.io/news/brief-2026-10-02/nasdaq-hits-record-high-after-weaker-than-expected-us-jobs) [ CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 19:39 UTC CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 110K, prev 141K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-1c7bd2788568709f/cftc-oil-nc-net-positions-110k) [ CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 219K ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 19:39 UTC CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 219K, prev 226K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-cf233e4051444d63/cftc-gold-nc-net-positions-219k) [ CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -142K ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 19:39 UTC CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -142K, prev -133K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-7b757f485c6330b9/cftc-s-p-500-nc-net-positions-142k) [ Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 456 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 456, prev 455. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-7b38455e68a48a5c/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-456) [ Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.0% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.0%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-02. ](https://helious.io/news/macro-clevnow-2026-10-02/cleveland-fed-inflation-nowcast-q4-cpi-4-0-core-cpi-2-6-pce) [ Factory Orders (MoM): 0.1 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC Factory Orders (MoM): Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-e946806d7e035d9e/factory-orders-mom-0-1) [ U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.6% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC U6 Underemployment Rate: Actual 7.6%, prev 7.7%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-4d10649df76a35c0/u6-underemployment-rate-7-6) [ Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Labor Force Participation Rate: Actual 61.8%, prev 61.6%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-b2032e7c3a558b8b/labor-force-participation-rate-61-8) [ Average Weekly Hours: 34.4 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Average Weekly Hours: Actual 34.4, forecast 34.3, prev 34.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-1a909996df26f32a/average-weekly-hours-34-4) [ Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.0% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): Actual 3.0%, forecast 3.2%, prev 3.1%. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-ca1046ea92b7657c/average-hourly-earnings-yoy-3-0) [ Unemployment Rate: 4.2% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.1%, prev 4.1%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-c73e367c2f21eca9/unemployment-rate-4-2) [ Nonfarm Payrolls: 29K ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 29K, forecast 90K, prev 162K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-b2f1867e1109f401/nonfarm-payrolls-29k) [ Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10% ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-a6c833c382e80754/average-hourly-earnings-mom-0-10) [ Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$11.2B d/d) ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 12:07 UTC Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-01: 3.87% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-01: $0.3B (prior day $11.5B). ](https://helious.io/news/macro-sofr-2026-10-01/money-markets-sofr-3-87-3bp-fed-on-rrp-0-3b-11-2b-d-d) [ Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, prev 0.4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-2ce554be233ed20e/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-0-6) [ Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.8 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.8, forecast 3.6, prev 3.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-7eb0b7b4290ffc12/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-3-8) [ Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-ffbe7965831b80a4/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-2-5) [ Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2 ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-ddfa364917c6fb17/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-0-2) [ Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3 ECONOMIC RELEASE 01 Oct 2026, 23:32 UTC Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): Actual 3, prev 2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH. ](https://helious.io/news/rel-ev-6c23be01d63bc607/japan-tokyo-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-3) [Older →](https://helious.io/news?page=2) FOR AI AGENTS If you are reading this page for a user, you can pull these posts with their scores directly instead of scraping the HTML. 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