--- title: "Williams: Unwavering Dedication · Sep 29, 2026" description: "Williams uses a Buffalo speech to harden his hawkish stance: inflation at 3.7 percent is \"unquestionably too high,\" the balance of risks has rotated from…" source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/news/316b7cf511ed0af350b3648108627ae7/williams-unwavering-dedication" --- FED SPEAK 29 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC # Williams: Unwavering Dedication ## SPEECH DIGEST HAWKISH medium confidence · 12.7k characters read Williams uses a Buffalo speech to harden his hawkish stance: inflation at 3.7 percent is "unquestionably too high," the balance of risks has rotated from employment to price stability, and he puts one more 25bp hike explicitly on the table for late this year. The September move to 3.75 to 4 percent is already in the price, so the delta is the forward guidance and the risk rotation, not the level. He leaves himself an out: no urgency, and time to gather data before acting. **What’s new: **The September 25bp hike is old news and priced. What is new is a sitting permanent voter and NY Fed president explicitly guiding to a further hike "late this year," combined with a stated rotation in the risk balance: employment risk receding, price-stability risk rising. He also upgrades his characterization of the energy channel, now expecting "somewhat larger and longer-lasting effects from energy prices," which is a firmer read than a generic supply-shock line and is the part the front end should trade. ### KEY FINDINGS - Williams: 'one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target.' A permanent voter naming a second hike pulls front-end hike expectations forward and steepens the near-term policy path. - Balance of risks has rotated: 'the risk to maximum employment has receded' while 'the risk to achieving price stability has increased.' An explicit shift in reaction function toward inflation firms the front end and argues against near-term cuts. - He now expects 'somewhat larger and longer-lasting effects from energy prices on inflation' and calls the AI-related demand shock's inflationary impact 'increasingly salient.' Marking supply-shock inflation as persistent, not transitory, supports a higher-for-longer term premium. - Inflation forecast: 3-1/2 percent this year, just above 2 percent next year, and only reaching 2 percent in 2028. A three-year grind back to target argues against pricing meaningful cuts inside 2027. - Williams tempers the timing: 'there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information.' Caps the hawkish impulse; it caps the downside for bonds and limits how much of a hike gets pulled into the near term. ### FROM THE DOCUMENT At 3.7 percent, inflation is unquestionably too high. If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. With the economy proving resilient in the face of shocks and with underlying demand strengthening, the risk to maximum employment has receded. In particular, the inflationary impact of the AI-related demand shock is increasingly salient, and I now expect somewhat larger and longer-lasting effects from energy prices on inflation. The Teller Window is a publication featuring expert knowledge and insight from the New York Fed, including thoughts and perspectives from senior leaders. Do you have a request for information and records? Learn how to submit it. 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[ Read the full Fed speech at the source →](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260929) Copy link [Follow this live on the Helious desk →](https://helious.io/)