--- title: Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - September 2026 (to be published at 12pm) description: "The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% but the vote split to 6-3, with Greene, Mann and Pill preferring a 25bp hike to 4%: a larger hawkish dissent than the…" source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/news/5295c2cea75a5c9526a25c816b1c8c2a/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-of-the-monetary-policy" --- Boe 17 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC # Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - September 2026 (to be published at 12pm) ## MINUTES DIGEST HAWKISH high confidence · 46.1k characters read The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% but the vote split to 6-3, with Greene, Mann and Pill preferring a 25bp hike to 4%: a larger hawkish dissent than the market's hold expectation implied. Risks to inflation are judged tilted further to the upside than in July, with CPI seen around 3¾% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027. Separately, the Committee voted unanimously to run QT down to zero on a fixed multi-year path averaging £46bn a year, slower than last year's £70bn, and to explore implementing sales to Government. Net: a hawkish hold, with the front end skewed toward hikes and the bar to cutting kept high. **What’s new: **Little new on the decision itself: nearly all MaPS respondents expected a hold. The genuinely new content is the three-way hawkish dissent (Greene, Mann, Pill), which extends the July shift and is the reason front-end yields should trade higher. The multi-year QT plan to zero at a £46bn annual average is new and slower than the £70bn reduction of the past 12 months, a modest support for gilts, though the fixed path embeds the QT impulse into financial conditions sooner. Market intelligence already flagged a rising perceived probability of near-term hikes, so the hawkish direction is partly priced; the vote split and the explicit tightening bias in the majority's language are the deltas. ### KEY FINDINGS - Vote split 6-3, with three members (Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferring a 0.25 percentage point increase to 4%. The hawkish dissent bloc has grown, signalling the Committee is closer to hiking than the market's hold expectation implied, leaving front-end risk skewed to hikes. - Risks to the inflation outlook are judged tilted to the upside, and more so than in July, with CPI expected around 3¾% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1. Confirms a prolonged above-target overshoot that keeps a tightening bias alive at the front end. - Even majority hold voters flag tightening: Bailey says 'it is likely that policy may have to tighten', Breeden says 'it becomes increasingly appropriate for Bank Rate to respond', Lombardelli says 'the case for raising Bank Rate is building', Ramsden says 'there could be a case for increasing Bank Rate'. The reaction function is asymmetric hawkish: the bar to hike is falling while the bar to cut stays high. - The Committee voted unanimously to reduce the gilt stock to zero at an annual average pace of £46bn by end-2034, through £20bn of annual sales alongside maturities, slower than the £70bn reduction over the past 12 months. A slower outright unwind than the prior year is a modest support for gilts, and the fixed multi-year path embeds QT into financial conditions sooner. - Evidence of second-round effects remains limited, food inflation is weaker than expected (around 4% at end-2026 versus 6-7% expected in April), and slack is now judged to have stabilised. These are the mitigants the doves lean on, arguing there is little near-term justification to hike and giving the majority cover to hold. - Implementation may shift to APF sales to Government via the DMO, with Bank APF auctions paused and operational details to be announced by April 2027. A structural change to how QT reaches the market, potentially reducing disruption to gilt demand. ### FROM THE DOCUMENT Three members (Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase in Bank Rate at this meeting. Six members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor) preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% at this meeting. But if the conflict in the Middle East persists for an extended period, as appears to be the case, and the risk of second-round effects emerging increases, it is likely that policy may have to tighten. Raising Bank Rate is a better risk-management strategy when faced with uncertainty about inflation dynamics and second-round effects. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for making decisions about Bank Rate. At its meeting ending on 16 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. Protracted conflict in the Middle East has contributed to further increases in crude and refined energy prices since the previous meeting, which remain more volatile and higher than pre-conflict. UK CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further over coming quarters. Monetary policy is being set to ensure inflation comes down to 2% sustainably as the economy adjusts to the energy shock. The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the shock and how it propagates through the economy. There has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting. [ Read the full Bank of England MPC minutes at the source →](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026) Copy link [Follow this live in the terminal →](https://helious.io/)