--- title: Waller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections description: Waller uses an Istanbul speech to defend September's 25bp hike and to set out a "signaling" framework for policy communication, pitching the SEP as a middle… source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/news/a910a654a5c375984a013bb55f932327/waller-the-signaling-value-of-the-summary-of-economic" --- Fed speak 08 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC # Waller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections ## SPEECH DIGEST HAWKISH medium confidence · 11.6k characters read Waller uses an Istanbul speech to defend September's 25bp hike and to set out a "signaling" framework for policy communication, pitching the SEP as a middle path between saying nothing and hard forward guidance. He is explicit that if data come in as expected he anticipates additional hikes, and that near-term policy is focused on the inflation side of the mandate. The dot counts and futures pricing he cites confirm the tightening bias already in the curve. Most of the content is priced; the genuinely new part is his personal endorsement of more hikes and the communication doctrine behind it. **What’s new: **The September hike, the dots and the futures pricing are all old news and are quoted back to the audience rather than revealed. NEW is Waller's open personal commitment to more hikes if the data cooperate, his explicit dismissal of slowdown risk, and his framing of the SEP as a deliberate "signaling" device rather than forward guidance. That doctrine matters for how the Committee may guide markets into 2027, and it is the only part of the speech that should move the front end. ### KEY FINDINGS - Waller: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal." An on-the-record voter endorsing more tightening confirms the hawkish bias and caps front-end rallies. - He states that "For at least the near term, policy will be focused on the inflation side of our mandate" and is "not greatly concerned that tighter monetary policy threatens a damaging slowdown." Removes the growth-put floor that had supported the front end, reinforcing higher-for-longer pricing. - Dot detail: 16 of 18 participants anticipate at least one more hike this year, four of those expect two more, and eight see rates 50bp higher at end-2027 than today. Quantifies the participant balance behind the median, supporting a higher expected terminal rate into 2027. - Market reads roughly 85 percent odds of at least one hike by December and nearly 20 percent for two; nearly 80 percent for at least two hikes by the March 2027 meeting. One hike is close to fully priced, so incremental hawkish news has limited room to reprice the very front end. - Waller presents the SEP as a "signaling option" that fixes a likely destination but leaves pace and size data dependent, explicitly not forward guidance. Preserves optionality and limits how far the curve can mechanically extrapolate a fixed path. ### FROM THE DOCUMENT Sixteen of the 18 participants who submitted dots anticipated at least one more hike during the two remaining meetings this year. If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal. For at least the near term, policy will be focused on the inflation side of our mandate. With evidence that economic activity is strengthening in the second half of this year, I am not greatly concerned that tighter monetary policy threatens a damaging slowdown in the economy. Speech At the Istanbul Economic Forum, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Istanbul, Türkiye Thank you to the Central Bank of Türkiye for the opportunity to speak to you. 1 I look forward today to hearing perspectives on the global economy and Türkiye's role in it, but I thought the most constructive use I can make of the valuable time you have granted me is to offer a brief update on the U.S. economy and then offer some thoughts on central bank communication. As you know, in September the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise our policy rate 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent after nine months during which we held it steady. When monetary policy changes in this fashion, one question that most people ask is, what comes next? [ Read the full Fed speech at the source →](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm) Copy link [Follow this live in the terminal →](https://helious.io/)