---
title: This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means
description: "Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp."
source: Helious
canonical: "https://helious.io/news/brief-2026-08-04/this-indicator-hasnt-been-this-high-in-4-years-it-means-the"
---

DAILY BRIEF
              04 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC



# This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul, 10s -5bp · desk brief, Tue 04 Aug 2026



            Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp.

Narrative: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump calls off Iran attack, oil and bond yields ease

What mattered:

• This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Could Raise Rates in 2026

• Treasuries Rise as Falling Oil Prices Trim Fed Rate-Hike Wagers

• German 2 Yr Schatz Yield Actual 2.78 (Forecast -, Previous 1.1)

• One Word Repeated 10 Times by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Effectively Reshaped the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Approach

• Alarming missile report draws forceful response from Trump as Iran war tests America’s arsenal





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