--- title: "Philip R. Lane: Interview with Le Temps" description: "Lane's interview hardens the September energy-shock message: a second wave of oil and gas price rises means inflation stays higher for longer, with a return…" source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/news/c5ec306b375945c8f9fd2615c706ba5d/philip-r-lane-interview-with-le-temps" --- ECB 22 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC # Philip R. Lane: Interview with Le Temps ## SPEECH DIGEST HAWKISH medium confidence · 3.5k characters read Lane's interview hardens the September energy-shock message: a second wave of oil and gas price rises means inflation stays higher for longer, with a return to target now dated from mid-2027. Pass-through into food, electricity and goods is expected, though services pressure stays contained and there is no broad second-round effect yet. Policy read: no near-term cuts, the easing path is pushed out. Fiscal offsets from German spending, Next Generation EU and AI keep the growth baseline steady but modest. **What’s new: **The 10 September signal that the energy shock would last longer was already public and priced. What this interview adds is the explicit horizon: inflation back to target only from mid-2027, and the channel detail that the second wave will push food, energy including electricity, and goods, while services stay contained. That is a confirmation-plus-extension of the September message, not a fresh shock, so the new information is the dated horizon rather than the direction. ### KEY FINDINGS - Inflation is now guided as higher for longer, falling back towards target only from mid-2027 onwards. Pushes out the return-to-target date, taking near-term rate cuts off the table and steepening the front-end path. - The shock is a second wave, and it is broader than oil: Lane flags gas too, plus expected upward pressure on food, electricity and goods, with services contained. Widens the inflation impulse beyond energy headline, raising the risk of more persistent core pressure. - So far, between February and now, there is no pass-through into other goods and services prices. Second-round effects are not yet in the data, which caps how hawkish the market needs to reprice. - Growth baseline is steady but modest, conditioned on the energy shock not worsening, supported by German infrastructure and defence spending, Next Generation EU, and AI exposure. Limits the dovish pull from growth and keeps the policy bias on inflation rather than activity. - Germany has the fiscal space it needs and Next Generation EU does not raise debt-sustainability concern, but the spending boost fades over time. Neutralises fiscal-risk premium as a driver and flags a waning growth impulse into 2027. ### FROM THE DOCUMENT As a result, we think that because of this second wave of rising energy prices, inflation is likely to be higher for longer, before falling back towards our target from mid-2027 onwards. However, because we are now facing a second wave of energy price increases, we think there will be upward pressure on food, energy more broadly – including electricity – and goods in general, while pressure on services remains contained. So far, between February and now, no. So that’s the good news. For us, the baseline is that the European economy should continue to grow at a steady but modest pace provided the energy shock does not become more severe. Essentially, we experienced an initial wave of energy price increases in March and April this year, and then some optimism after the United States and Iran signed the Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June to bring the conflict to an end. Indeed. We are now seeing a second wave of price increases, not just for oil but also for gas. That’s why we indicated on 10 September that we expect the energy shock to last longer than we had anticipated in March. At the time, markets expected the peak of the energy shock to come around June, followed by a recovery in the second half of the year. Although there was a temporary recovery over the summer, geopolitical risks now appear to be elevated again. As a result, we think that because of this second wave of rising energy prices, inflation is likely to be higher for longer, before falling back towards our target from mid-2027 onwards. [ Read the full ECB interview at the source →](https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/inter/date/2026/html/ecb.in260922~5f89d300ee.en.html) Copy link [Follow this live on the Helious desk →](https://helious.io/)