--- title: "Fed Rate Path: 3.955% Priced From Sep 2026" description: What the market is paying for US rates four years out, from SOFR and fed funds futures, next to the same contracts six and twelve months ago. source: Helious canonical: "https://helious.io/rate-path" --- # The rate path, four years out What the market is paying for US rates over the next four years, and what it was paying for the same contracts six and twelve months ago. ## Latest reading Next Fed decision · 28 Oct 2026 *3.955%* priced for the quarter from 16 Sep 2026 The first quarter that decision can move. The path climbs to 4.665% by Sep 2027 and tops out there. A year ago the same quarter priced 3.035%. The decisions after that fall on 9 Dec 2026, 27 Jan 2027, 17 Mar 2027. The whole strip drawn on three different dates ## The whole strip, then and now Left to right is further into the future. Each line is one day's view of that whole path, so the distance between the lines is how much the market changed its mind. **Whites** are the next four quarters, then **reds**, **greens** and **blues**. They shift along on 10 Dec 2026, the morning after the last decision the front quarter can price. Strip3-month SOFR futuresFed funds futures Seen fromNow6 months ago12 months ago WhiteRedGreenBlue 3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5% Now 4.600% 6mo ago 3.730% 12mo ago 3.570% Sep 26Mar 27Sep 27Mar 28Sep 28Mar 29Sep 29Mar 30 **Now **4.600%****6mo ago **3.730%****12mo ago **3.570%** What the market expects three-month SOFR to average over each quarter. SOFR is the secured overnight rate that replaced Libor. One contract's own history ## Follow single contracts Pick up to 5 contracts and watch what the market paid for each of them, day by day. At 5 the next one you add replaces the one you picked first, and the counter below says when you are there. Clear all empties the selection so you can build a set from scratch. WhitesRedsGreensBluesFront of each packClear all 4 of 5 lines Showing6 months1 year2 yearsAll of it 3.5%4.0%4.5% Sep-Dec 26 3.955% Dec-Mar 27 4.255% Mar-Jun 27 4.495% Jun-Sep 27 4.630% Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Aug 26Sep 26 **Sep-Dec 26 **3.955%****Dec-Mar 27 **4.255%****Mar-Jun 27 **4.495%****Jun-Sep 27 **4.630%** Contracts Whites 4 - White 1 · Sep to Dec 2026 3.955% · +92bp in a year - White 2 · Dec to Mar 2027 4.255% · +127bp in a year - White 3 · Mar to Jun 2027 4.495% · +152bp in a year - White 4 · Jun to Sep 2027 4.630% · +163bp in a year Reds 4 - Red 1 · Sep to Dec 2027 4.665% · +163bp in a year - Red 2 · Dec to Mar 2028 4.645% · +156bp in a year - Red 3 · Mar to Jun 2028 4.635% · +149bp in a year - Red 4 · Jun to Sep 2028 4.625% · +144bp in a year Greens 4 - Green 1 · Sep to Dec 2028 4.625% · +138bp in a year - Green 2 · Dec to Mar 2029 4.625% · +134bp in a year - Green 3 · Mar to Jun 2029 4.610% · +128bp in a year - Green 4 · Jun to Sep 2029 4.600% · +122bp in a year Blues 4 - Blue 1 · Sep to Dec 2029 4.595% · +117bp in a year - Blue 2 · Dec to Mar 2030 4.595% · +112bp in a year - Blue 3 · Mar to Jun 2030 4.595% · +107bp in a year - Blue 4 · Jun to Sep 2030 4.600% · +103bp in a year ## Every contract on the strip The same numbers as the chart above, for reading rather than looking. 3-month SOFR futures by contract, now and at two earlier dates Covers Pack Now6 months ago12 months ago Change in a year 16 Sep 2026 to 16 Dec 2026 32% elapsed White 1 3.955%3.645%3.035% +92bp 16 Dec 2026 to 17 Mar 2027 White 2 4.255%3.605%2.980% +127bp 17 Mar 2027 to 16 Jun 2027 White 3 4.495%3.580%2.975% +152bp 16 Jun 2027 to 15 Sep 2027 White 4 4.630%3.530%2.995% +163bp 15 Sep 2027 to 15 Dec 2027 Red 1 4.665%3.460%3.035% +163bp 15 Dec 2027 to 15 Mar 2028 Red 2 4.645%3.410%3.085% +156bp 15 Mar 2028 to 21 Jun 2028 Red 3 4.635%3.410%3.140% +149bp 21 Jun 2028 to 20 Sep 2028 Red 4 4.625%3.435%3.190% +144bp 20 Sep 2028 to 20 Dec 2028 Green 1 4.625%3.465%3.240% +138bp 20 Dec 2028 to 21 Mar 2029 Green 2 4.625%3.495%3.290% +134bp 21 Mar 2029 to 20 Jun 2029 Green 3 4.610%3.535%3.335% +128bp 20 Jun 2029 to 19 Sep 2029 Green 4 4.600%3.570%3.380% +122bp 19 Sep 2029 to 19 Dec 2029 Blue 1 4.595%3.605%3.425% +117bp 19 Dec 2029 to 20 Mar 2030 Blue 2 4.595%3.645%3.470% +112bp 20 Mar 2030 to 19 Jun 2030 Blue 3 4.595%3.685%3.520% +107bp 19 Jun 2030 to 18 Sep 2030 Blue 4 4.600%3.730%3.570% +103bp ## How to read it A futures price is quoted as 100 minus the rate, so a price of 95.90 is a rate of 4.10 percent. The page does that conversion, so every number here is already a rate. These are prices, not forecasts. People pay them now to fix a rate for a future period, and they are often wrong. They are worth watching anyway, because the market is trading on them and you can see how far they have moved. The three lines are the same contracts on three different days, so a gap between them is the market revising one future quarter rather than moving on to a different one. The two strips are different rates, and the page never mixes them. SOFR is secured borrowing against Treasuries; the fed funds effective rate is unsecured lending between banks. They sat about three basis points apart at the start of September, and SOFR jumps at quarter ends when balance sheets are dressed for reporting. ## Questions ## FAQ ### What is a white, a red, a green and a blue? They are how a rates desk names the strip, four contracts to a colour. The whites are the next four quarterly contracts, covering 16 Sep 2026 through 15 Sep 2027. The reds are the four after that, then greens, then blues, which reaches Jun 2030. They shift by one when the front contract expires, and the next time that happens is 10 Dec 2026. ### What rate is this actually showing? Two different ones, and the page keeps them apart. The SOFR strip shows what the market expects three-month SOFR, the secured overnight rate that replaced Libor, to average over each quarter. The fed funds strip shows what it expects the Fed's own effective rate to average over each month. They are close but not the same: SOFR is secured and the fed funds rate is not, and SOFR jumps at quarter ends. Do not read one lane's number as the other's. ### Why do the two strips not line up month for month? Because the contracts cover different periods. A three-month SOFR contract labelled Mar 2027 covers the three months between two mid-month dates, not the calendar month. A fed funds contract covers the calendar month exactly. On a curve that slopes, comparing them by label compares two different stretches of time. ### What does the gap between the lines mean? It is how far the market has changed its mind. The biggest move on this strip is Jun 2027: priced at 2.995% a year ago and 4.630% now, a change of +163bp. The lines compare the same contracts on three different days, so each gap is one market revising one future quarter. ### Is this a forecast? No, it is a price. It is what people are paying today to fix a rate for a future period, which is a different thing from predicting one, and it is frequently wrong. It is worth reading anyway, because the market is trading on that number and you can see how far it has moved. ### How far out does it go, and why stop there? Sixteen quarterly contracts, which is four years. Contracts list well beyond that, but the four packs are the span a desk actually quotes, and past it the prices thin out. ## Take it with you Everything on this page is every listed contract on both strips with its implied rate now, six months ago and twelve months ago at [api.helious.io/v1/rate-path](https://api.helious.io/v1/rate-path), and as the get_rate_path tool on [api.helious.io/mcp](https://api.helious.io/mcp) if you want your own model to read it.