ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 72, prev 71.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.6, forecast 55.2, prev 55.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.9, forecast 53.2, prev 53.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 9.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 9.6, prev 9.1. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.68% (+3bp) · Fed ON RRP $6.7B (+$6.6B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-31: 3.68% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-31: $6.7B (prior day $0.2B).
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.4, prev 0.2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 54.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.3, forecast 54.1, prev 54.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): -2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual -2.5, prev -0.2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): -3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -3.4, forecast 0.4, prev -1.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 11.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index — Actual 11.6, prev 1.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-31.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-28: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-28: $0.2B (prior day $0.5B).
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 3.1, prev 2.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Large Retailer Sales — Actual 2, prev -1. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): 2.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM) — Actual 2.4, prev -4.1. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): 4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY) — Actual 4, forecast 3, prev 0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -68K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -68K, prev -11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 123K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 123K, prev 122K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 243K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 243K, prev 222K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 447
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 447, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Chicago PMI: 47.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI — Actual 47.1, forecast 57.9, prev 57.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-28.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 51.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 51.5, forecast 50.6, prev 50.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4, forecast 4.3, prev 4.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51.7, forecast 51, prev 51. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-27: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.23
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Business Climate — Actual -0.23, prev -0.19. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 98.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator — Actual 98.4, forecast 97.5, prev 96.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -15.5, prev -15.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Change: 4K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Change — Actual 4K, forecast 5K, prev 6K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.7, prev 1.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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