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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.33M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.33M, prev 9.07M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.0% (was 4.3%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.03%, revised from 4.31%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 14:08 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-18.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -2.2
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -2.2, prev -0.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -2.3
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -2.3, forecast 0.3, prev -5.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 13:16 UTC
Capacity Utilization: 76.3
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.3, prev 76.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.6
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, prev 8.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:32 UTC
Import Price Index (YoY): 5.9%
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.9%, prev 7.1%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.2%
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2%, prev 10.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -4.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Building Permits (MoM): 1.44M
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.44M, forecast 1.37M, prev 1.37M. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Export Price Index (MoM): -1.3%
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast 0.2%, prev -0.6%. BELOW FORECAST · -5.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Import Price Index (MoM): -0.4%
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.24M
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.24M, forecast 1.35M, prev 1.43M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 10K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 10K, prev 8K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-17: 3.66% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-17: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 09:02 UTC
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 31.4
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 31.4, forecast 25.4, prev 23.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.2
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.2, forecast 30, prev 26.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -61.1
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -61.1, forecast -68.8, prev -77.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:03 UTC
GB: Claimant Count Rate: 4.3
GB: Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.3, prev 4.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:01 UTC
GB: Claimant Count Change: -11K
GB: Claimant Count Change — Actual -11K, forecast 11K, prev 7K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.5σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:01 UTC
GB: Employment Change (3M): 83K
GB: Employment Change (3M) — Actual 83K, prev 147K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 4.8, prev 4.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 4.1
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 4.1, forecast 4.1, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 18 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 20:09 UTC
Total Net TIC Flows: 133.5B
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 133.5B, prev 132.2B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 20:02 UTC
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 172.7B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 172.7B, forecast 151.4B, prev 232.7B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 14:19 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-17.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
NAHB Housing Market Index: 35
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 35, forecast 33, prev 34. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 20.6
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 20.6, forecast 11, prev 15.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Aug 2026, 12:07 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Aug 2026, 23:51 UTC
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY): 2.6
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.4, prev 3.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Aug 2026, 23:50 UTC
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.5, prev 0.5. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Aug 2026, 23:50 UTC
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.1
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.1, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 19:34 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 218K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 218K, prev 198K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 99K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 99K, prev 112K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: 11K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual 11K, prev -27K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 17:02 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 455, prev 454. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 16:07 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.3% (was 5.8%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.31%, revised from 5.83%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-14.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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