Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Unemployment Rate — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio — Actual 1.18, forecast 1.19, prev 1.18. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Fed balance sheet $6.73T, -$14.8B w/w — QT run-off continues
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-26: $6,730,912M, vs $6,745,699M the prior week.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 17. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 15.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 15.0B, forecast 19.0B, prev 16.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-27.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.80M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Wholesale Inventories: 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 1.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: -118.8B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -118.8B, forecast -99.0B, prev -102.1B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 206K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 206K, prev 204K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 203K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 203K, forecast 208K, prev 206K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (+$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-26: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-26: $0.7B (prior day $0.4B).
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: -26.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey — Actual -26.6, forecast -29.6, prev -29.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.6% (was 4.0%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.61%, revised from 4.03%.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.03M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.03M, prev -0.54M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -2.54M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -2.54M, prev 0.69M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.23M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -2.23M, prev -1.53M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.10M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev 4.41M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-26.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.2%, prev 0.9%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 1.3, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders: 1.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.5, prev 0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.3, forecast 5.1, prev 5.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Spending: 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Spending — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.6, prev 3.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.1, prev -0.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Income (MoM): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Prelim GDP q/q: +1.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Prelim GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 1.5%, prev 1.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-25: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-25: $0.4B (prior day $0.4B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -1.0%, prev -0.4%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 4.20M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 4.20M, forecast 1.90M, prev -0.33M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-25.
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