Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 4, forecast 7, prev 5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.61M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.61M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.63M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Confidence: 89.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Confidence — Actual 89.4, forecast 90.3, prev 90.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 2.1, forecast 1.7, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 9.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 9.1, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 10K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-24: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-24: $0.4B (prior day $0.2B).
Germany · IFO – Expectations: 89.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Expectations — Actual 89.1, forecast 87.5, prev 86.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 88.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment — Actual 88.5, forecast 87, prev 86.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 88.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Business Climate — Actual 88.8, forecast 87.2, prev 86.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) — Actual 1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-24.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.08
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.08, prev -0.02. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-21: 3.65% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-21: $0.2B (prior day $0.2B).
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 122K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 122K, prev 99K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -11K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -11K, prev 11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 222K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 222K, prev 218K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 456, prev 455. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-21.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -16.3, prev -15.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.8, forecast 54, prev 54.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.2, forecast 53.9, prev 53.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-20: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-20: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 52.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 52.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 51.5, forecast 51.5, prev 51.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 52.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 52.5, forecast 51.6, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 51.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 51.7, forecast 51.5, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 52.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52.1, forecast 51.7, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 48.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 48.5, forecast 50.1, prev 49.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 54.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 52, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 51
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51, forecast 51.3, prev 51.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.3, forecast 3.3, prev 5.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): -0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual -0.9, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 1.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 2.2, prev 4.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.5, forecast -0.5, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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