UK · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.5, forecast -0.5, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.8, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.8, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -14
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual -14, forecast -18, prev -17. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, -$14.3B w/w — QT run-off continues
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-19: $6,745,699M, vs $6,759,955M the prior week.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 16.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 16.0B, forecast 17.0B, prev 36.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-20.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 47.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 47.4, forecast 25, prev 41.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 204K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 204K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 210K, prev 209K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-19: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-19: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3, forecast 2.7, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -686.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -686.0B, forecast -680.0B, prev -881.9B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · Imports (YoY): 27.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 27.8, forecast 26.5, prev 25.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Exports (YoY): 23.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 23.2, forecast 19.9, prev 19.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.54M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.54M, prev 0.19M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 0.69M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 0.69M, prev -0.97M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -1.53M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -1.53M, prev -0.01M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 4.41M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 4.41M, forecast -0.60M, prev 17.42M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-19.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-18: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-18: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -0.4%, prev 3.6%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.2, forecast 3.2, prev 3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 3.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.2, prev 3.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.8, prev 2.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.6, prev 0.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.5, prev 2.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.33M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.33M, prev 9.07M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.0% (was 4.3%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.03%, revised from 4.31%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-18.
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