ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement: -120.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -120.0B, forecast -132.8B, prev -293.0B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
TREASURY AUCTION
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: STRONG
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $79B on offer, B/C 3.11 (avg 2.75), high 3.992%, indirect 66.5% (avg 58.3), direct 8.1% (avg 7.1), dealer 25.4% (avg 34.6). STRONG demand → …
TREASURY AUCTION
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $92B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.59), high 3.849%, indirect 56.8% (avg 51.1), direct 8.2% (avg 6.2), dealer 35.0% (avg 42.7). STRONG demand → …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.55% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$5.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-10: 3.55% (prior 3.53%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-10: $0.5B (prior day $5.8B).
DAILY BRIEF
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday — US data & auctions, w/c 13 Jul 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 13 July 2026 — 34 scheduled US events, 12 high-impact, 6 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-We…
DAILY BRIEF
French inflation confirmed to fall in June, easing pressure on the ECB, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Fri 10 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-09): 2s 4.16% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.54% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.05% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-09): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +38bp. Narrative: Fed's Williams expects energy …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -43K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -43K, prev -38K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 76K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 76K, prev 110K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI: 54
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54, forecast 54.2, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Final Services PMI: 51.2
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).
DAILY BRIEF
US Existing Home Sales Dip as Affordability Concerns Linger, 10s +1bp — desk brief, Thu 09 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-08): 2s 4.21% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-08): VIX 16.9, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: European morning session wrap: …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.
TREASURY AUCTION
30-Year Bond auction: IN LINE
30-Year Bond auction: IN LINE. $22B on offer, B/C 2.44 (avg 2.43), high 5.058%, stopped through 0.3bp, indirect 77.7% (avg 65.1), direct 12.2% (avg 24.0), dealer 10.1% (avg 10.9). …
TREASURY AUCTION
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $95B on offer, B/C 2.95 (avg 2.88), high 3.706%, indirect 74.6% (avg 63.7), direct 4.5% (avg 3.1), dealer 21.0% (avg 33.2). STRONG demand → b…
TREASURY AUCTION
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK. $100B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.90), high 3.691%, indirect 56.6% (avg 63.4), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 38.8% (avg 33.1). WEAK demand → bond…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, prev 87.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, prev 4.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).
DAILY BRIEF
Colombian Inflation Accelerates to Two-Year High of 6.14%, 10s +7bp — desk brief, Wed 08 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-07): 2s 4.19% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.55% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.05% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-07): VIX 16.13, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: European morning session wrap:…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION
10-Year Note auction: STRONG
10-Year Note auction: STRONG. $39B on offer, B/C 2.59 (avg 2.46), high 4.580%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 81.5% (avg 69.4), direct 10.7% (avg 19.9), dealer 7.8% (avg 10.7). ST…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.
TREASURY AUCTION
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $72B on offer, B/C 3.41 (avg 2.85), high 3.891%, indirect 69.6% (avg 56.4), direct 4.5% (avg 4.8), dealer 25.9% (avg 38.8). STRONG demand → …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF
US Trade Deficit Widens to Biggest in More Than a Year — desk brief, Tue 07 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-06): 2s 4.13%, 10s 4.48%, 30s 4.99%. Tape (close 2026-07-06): VIX 15.57, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: A week later and not much has changed with the Strait of …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION
3-Year Note auction: STRONG
3-Year Note auction: STRONG. $58B on offer, B/C 2.60 (avg 2.61), high 4.179%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 67.5% (avg 62.5), direct 24.8% (avg 22.5), dealer 7.7% (avg 15.0). STR…
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