ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 8K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.0B (-$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations: 3.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
JP: Current Account n.s.a.: -92.3B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 112K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -27K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 198K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 198K, prev 182K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Credit Change: 14.2B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 14.2B, forecast 10.5B, prev -0.2B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 454
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 454, forecast 452, prev 451. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-07.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.4%, prev 61.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Nonfarm Payrolls: -23K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.2%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-06: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-06: $1.4B (prior day $1.6B).
DE: Trade Balance s.a.: 15.4B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 15.4B, forecast 17.4B, prev 19.1B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$10.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-05: $6,748,567M, vs $6,738,190M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.8% (was 5.9%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.83%, revised from 5.86%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 33.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 33.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 28.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-06.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 203K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Retail Sales (YoY): 0.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.7, forecast 1, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Unit Labor Costs: 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 199K, forecast 202K, prev 197K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.6B (-$0.6B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-05: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-05: $1.6B (prior day $2.3B).
Challenger Job Cuts: 33K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 33K, prev 46K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 6.5, prev 6.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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