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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51, forecast 54.5, prev 55.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 50.6
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 50.6, prev 55.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Business Inventories: 0
Business Inventories — Actual 0, forecast 0.1, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.3, prev 4.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 12:52 UTC
Retail Sales Control Group: -0.40%
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual -0.40%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 12:52 UTC
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 12:52 UTC
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.3
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-13: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-13: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.4
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Aug 2026, 08:59 UTC
EU: Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
EU: Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$11.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-12: $6,759,955M, vs $6,748,567M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 14:54 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 36.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 36.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 33.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 14:08 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.7%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.7%
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 4.9%, prev 5.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.00%
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev -0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 209K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 209K, forecast 202K, prev 199K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 12:08 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-12: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-12: $0.7B (prior day $1.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.2
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.3
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.0σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC
Monthly Budget Statement: -432.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -432.0B, forecast -346.0B, prev -120.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 17.42M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:59 UTC
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.79
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.10%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.5%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92%
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:09 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: 3.6%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.9
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 9.07M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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