Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 208K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 208K, prev 214K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.02
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.02, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims: 187K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 187K, forecast 212K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-22: 3.62% (prior 3.61%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-22: $0.4B (prior day $0.3B).
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.01M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.01M, forecast -1.50M, prev -1.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-22.
Money markets: SOFR 3.61% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-21: 3.61% (prior 3.57%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-21: $0.3B (prior day $0.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 1.9%, prev -2.7%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -1.7M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -1.7M, prev -0.06M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-21.
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.8, prev 8.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 20K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.57% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.0B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-20: 3.57% (prior 3.59%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-20: $0.0B (prior day $0.1B).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.9% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.9%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-20.
Money markets: SOFR 3.59% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-17: 3.59% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-17: $0.1B (prior day $0.1B).
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 63K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 63K, prev 76K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 187K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 187K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -39K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -39K, prev -43K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 446, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.7%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.68%, revised from 1.74%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-17.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 54, prev 50.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, prev 4.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 54.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 54.4, forecast 51, prev 49.5. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Capacity Utilization: 76.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.1, forecast 76.2, prev 76.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Import Price Index (YoY): 7.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.1, prev 6.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 10.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 10.2, prev 11.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): -0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast -0.4, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3%, forecast -0.7%, prev 1.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.43M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.43M, prev 1.18M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM): 1.37M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.37M, prev 1.41M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-16: $0.1B (prior day $0.2B).
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$7.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-15: $6,743,028M, vs $6,735,609M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.3%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.74%, revised from 1.26%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +61.0Bcf
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +61.0Bcf, prev 61.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-16.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.3, prev 4.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -5.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -5.4, forecast -0.5, prev 3.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 34, forecast 35, prev 35. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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