Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 55.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 55.4, forecast 54, prev 54. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 55.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 55.2, forecast 54, prev 54.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Chicago PMI: 57.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI — Actual 57.6, forecast 56, prev 56.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Employment Cost Index: 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Employment Cost Index — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.8, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$1.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-30: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-30: $1.1B (prior day $2.6B).
Investigating Calendar Display Issue
DESK NOTE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DE: Unemployment Change: 6K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Change — Actual 6K, forecast 5K, prev -1K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Mortgage rates move higher, Treasury yields surge, 10s +6bp · desk brief, Thu 30 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-29): 2s 4.22% (-4.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.2% (+11.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-29): VIX 20.66, 2s10s +45bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, -$9.2B w/w — QT run-off continues
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-29: $6,738,190M, vs $6,747,378M the prior week.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.69), high 3.675% (inv 3.747%), indirect 62.9% (avg 60.8), direct 4.0% (avg 3.9), dealer 33.1% (avg 35.3).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.80 (avg 2.74), high 3.630% (inv 3.691%), indirect 65.0% (avg 63.4), direct 4.0% (avg 4.2), dealer 31.0% (avg 32.4).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (prior quarter 1.5%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.95%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 28.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 28.0B, forecast 35.0B, prev 32.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-30.
Advance GDP q/q: +1.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Advance GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 2.1%, prev 2.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.1, prev 4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.7, prev 4.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): -0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.1, forecast -0.1, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 203K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 203K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.3, forecast 3.6, prev 3.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 2.1, prev 2.1. BELOW FORECAST · -1.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.5, prev 4.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Spending: 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Spending — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Income (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 197K, forecast 200K, prev 187K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $2.6B (+$1.4B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-29: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-29: $2.6B (prior day $1.1B).
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.7, prev 2.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.8, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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