Final Services PMI: 51.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.
Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, prev 87.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, prev 4.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).
Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.4% (was 1.2%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.36%, revised from 1.19%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-07.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.5, forecast 45, prev 42.5. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: $-105.9B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance — Actual $-105.9B, prev $-105.8B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 11.5%, prev 10.5%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods and Services Trade Balance: $-77.6B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual $-77.6B, forecast $-78.0B, prev $-55.9B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 21K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 21K, prev 31K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.7B (+$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-06: 3.63% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-06: $2.7B (prior day $2.2B).
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -38K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -38K, prev -35K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 110K, prev 115K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 181K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-06.
ISM Services Prices Paid: 67.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 67.7, prev 71.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Services New Orders Index: 55.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 55.1, prev 57.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 51.2, prev 47.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 51.9, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-02: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-01: 3.66% (prior 3.68%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
Fed balance sheet $6.72T, -$11.1B w/w — QT run-off continues
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-01: $6,724,564M, vs $6,735,645M the prior week.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-03.
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