Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.2% (prior quarter 1.2%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.19%.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Consumer Confidence: 91.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Confidence — Actual 91.2, forecast 94.4, prev 93.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 440. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +76.0Bcf
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +76.0Bcf, forecast 81, prev 76. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Factory Orders (MoM): -1.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast -1.8%, prev 4.8%. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9, prev 8.1. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.5, prev 61.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 222K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 222K, prev 224K. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, forecast 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.4%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 220K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.3%, prev 4.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Nonfarm Payrolls: 57K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual 57K, forecast 110K, prev 172K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.30%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Total Vehicle Sales: 16.500M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Vehicle Sales — Actual 16.500M, forecast 16.1M, prev 16.100M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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