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Latest desk notes

US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK

French inflation confirmed to fall in June, easing pressure on the ECB, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Fri 10 Jul 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-09): 2s 4.16% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.54% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.05% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-09): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +38bp.

CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -43K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -43K, prev -38K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 76K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 76K, prev 110K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

ISM Services PMI: 54

ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54, forecast 54.2, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.

Final Services PMI: 51.2

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.

Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).

US Existing Home Sales Dip as Affordability Concerns Linger, 10s +1bp — desk brief, Thu 09 Jul 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-08): 2s 4.21% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-08): VIX 16.9, 2s10s +35bp.

Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.

30-Year Bond auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $22B on offer, B/C 2.44 (avg 2.43), high 5.058%, stopped through 0.3bp, indirect 77.7% (avg 65.1), direct 12.2% (avg 24.0), dealer 10.1% (avg 10.9).

8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG

TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.95 (avg 2.88), high 3.706%, indirect 74.6% (avg 63.7), direct 4.5% (avg 3.1), dealer 21.0% (avg 33.2). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.

4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK

TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.90), high 3.691%, indirect 56.6% (avg 63.4), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 38.8% (avg 33.1). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf

ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, prev 87.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.

Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, prev 4.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.

Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Initial Jobless Claims: 215K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).

Colombian Inflation Accelerates to Two-Year High of 6.14%, 10s +7bp — desk brief, Wed 08 Jul 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-07): 2s 4.19% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.55% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.05% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-07): VIX 16.13, 2s10s +36bp.

Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

10-Year Note auction: STRONG

TREASURY AUCTION
. $39B on offer, B/C 2.59 (avg 2.46), high 4.580%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 81.5% (avg 69.4), direct 10.7% (avg 19.9), dealer 7.8% (avg 10.7). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.

17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG

TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.41 (avg 2.85), high 3.891%, indirect 69.6% (avg 56.4), direct 4.5% (avg 4.8), dealer 25.9% (avg 38.8). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.

Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).

MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

US Trade Deficit Widens to Biggest in More Than a Year — desk brief, Tue 07 Jul 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-06): 2s 4.13%, 10s 4.48%, 30s 4.99%. Tape (close 2026-07-06): VIX 15.57, 2s10s +35bp.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

3-Year Note auction: STRONG

TREASURY AUCTION
. $58B on offer, B/C 2.60 (avg 2.61), high 4.179%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 67.5% (avg 62.5), direct 24.8% (avg 22.5), dealer 7.7% (avg 15.0). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.4% (was 1.2%)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.36%, revised from 1.19%.

52-Week (1-year) Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $52B on offer, B/C 3.14 (avg 3.29), high 4.032%, indirect 60.1% (avg 66.4), direct 4.6% (avg 3.3), dealer 35.3% (avg 30.4). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.

6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 3.00), high 3.701%, indirect 63.5% (avg 62.6), direct 2.7% (avg 4.0), dealer 33.8% (avg 33.4). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-07.

RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.5

ECONOMIC RELEASE
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.5, forecast 45, prev 42.5. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Goods Trade Balance: $-105.9B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance — Actual $-105.9B, prev $-105.8B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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