Personal Income (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Income (MoM): Actual 0.2, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: Actual 6.1, forecast 6.4%, prev 6.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 2.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: Actual 2.2, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.4, forecast 3.7, prev 3.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.3, forecast 0.4, prev 0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): Actual 3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Goods Trade Balance: -132.6B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance: Actual -132.6B, forecast -108.5B, prev -119.6B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 8.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: Actual 0.7, forecast 1.1, prev 1.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
ADP Employment Change: 90K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change: Actual 90K, forecast 70K, prev 38K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $11.4B (+$10.6B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-29: 3.88% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-29: $11.4B (prior day $0.9B).
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.1, prev 2.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.3, prev 2.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.5, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.5, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -6.0%, prev -1.5%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Germany · Unemployment Change: 12K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Change: Actual 12K, forecast 5K, prev 4K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev -3.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): -0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): Actual -0.4, prev -2.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Actual 1.4, forecast 1.2, prev 1.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): Actual 0.5, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: Actual 1, prev 1.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): Actual -1.2, prev 2.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): 2.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): Actual 2.7, forecast 3.3, prev 4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush, 10s +7bp · Tue 29 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-28): 2s 4.92% (+11.0bp), 10s 5.24% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.56% (+7.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-28): VIX 16.07, 2s10s +32bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 1.02M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual 1.02M, prev 1.79M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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52-Week (1-year) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $54B on offer, B/C 3.07 (avg 3.39), high 4.400% (inv 4.616%), indirect 70.9% (avg 66.5), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 24.6% (avg 30.0).
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.94), high 3.970% (inv 4.044%), indirect 67.2% (avg 66.0), direct 5.1% (avg 3.7), dealer 27.8% (avg 30.3).
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.08M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JOLTS Job Openings: Actual 7.08M, forecast 7.23M, prev 7.27M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Consumer Confidence: 81.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Confidence: Actual 81.9, forecast 89.2, prev 89.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.2, prev 2.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 8.2, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-28: 3.90% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-28: $0.9B (prior day $0.6B).
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 97.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: Actual 97.9, forecast 99, prev 98.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -16.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: Actual -16.5, forecast -16.5, prev -16.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.06
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Business Climate: Actual -0.06, prev -0.23. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury tops 5.25% as yields continue to climb, 10s -1bp · Mon 28 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-25): 2s 4.81% (-6.0bp), 10s 5.17% (-1.0bp), 30s 5.49% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-25): VIX 14.21, 2s10s +36bp.
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