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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
TREASURY AUCTION 12 Aug 2026, 17:04 UTC
10-Year Note auction — IN LINE
10-Year Note auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.53 (avg 2.49), high 4.683%, on the screws (avg +0.3bp), indirect 76.7% (avg 72.7), direct 14.7% (avg 16.8), dealer 8.6% (avg 10.5). IN LINE de…
TREASURY AUCTION 12 Aug 2026, 15:34 UTC
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 3.16 (avg 3.07), high 3.755% (inv 3.855%), indirect 62.3% (avg 60.0), direct 6.6% (avg 6.2), dealer 31.1% (avg 33.7). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 17.42M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
DESK NOTE 12 Aug 2026, 13:04 UTC
Energy inflation ticks down -1.48% and no outlier raises in other CPI buckets, causing a bid in bonds and equities.
This could be enough for the FED to hold, in September, we do have another bout of inflation data and job data prior to the meeting, but this is a good sign today that inflation da…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:59 UTC
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.79
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.10%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.5%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92%
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 12:09 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: 3.6%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 12 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.9
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 11 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC
Fed Expected to Keep Raising Rates Until Inflation Cools, 10s +7bp · desk brief, Tue 11 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-10): 10s 4.72% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-10): VIX 15.46, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: US military disables Panama-flagged tanker in vio…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 9.07M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 11 Aug 2026, 17:06 UTC
3-Year Note auction — STRONG
3-Year Note auction — STRONG. B/C 2.71 (avg 2.60), high 4.291%, stopped through 0.5bp (avg +0.0bp), indirect 64.2% (avg 65.8), direct 24.0% (avg 19.7), dealer 11.7% (avg 14.5). STR…
TREASURY AUCTION 11 Aug 2026, 15:35 UTC
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.93 (avg 2.82), high 3.670% (inv 3.737%), indirect 71.3% (avg 68.3), direct 3.2% (avg 3.4), dealer 25.6% (avg 28.3). IN LINE demand → bonds BULL…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 14:24 UTC
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.06M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 14:07 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 8K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 11:59 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.0B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 10:14 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DAILY BRIEF 10 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC
Cleveland Fed's Hammack expects that more than one rate hike will be n, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Mon 10 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-07): 2s 4.19% (-6.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.19% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-07): VIX 14.9, 2s10s +46bp. Narrative: Europe Gas Prices Surge as Horm…
TREASURY AUCTION 10 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.85 (avg 2.96), high 3.830% (inv 3.960%), indirect 54.5% (avg 59.6), direct 8.9% (avg 9.5), dealer 36.7% (avg 30.9). IN LINE demand →…
TREASURY AUCTION 10 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.88 (avg 2.73), high 3.735% (inv 3.823%), indirect 57.2% (avg 53.9), direct 6.8% (avg 7.0), dealer 36.0% (avg 39.1). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 14:47 UTC
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations: 3.3%
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 12:05 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 08:30 UTC
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: 0.9
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Aug 2026, 23:56 UTC
JP: Current Account n.s.a.: -92.3B
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 09 Aug 2026, 18:10 UTC
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 10 Aug 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 10 August 2026 — 29 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-…
DAILY BRIEF 07 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC
Treasury yields fall as softer payrolls data lands, 10s +6bp · desk brief, Fri 07 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-06): 2s 4.25% (+7.0bp), 10s 4.69% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.22% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-06): VIX 15.15, 2s10s +44bp. Narrative: Gold price hits highest level …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 112K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -27K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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