Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.3
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.6
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.0%
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
Germany · Unemployment Change: 12K
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): 1.3
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): -0.4
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.4
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.5
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 1
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): 2.7
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 1.02M
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.08M
Consumer Confidence: 81.9
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.5
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.3B d/d)
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 97.9
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -16.5
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.06
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 9.8
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (-$0.1B d/d)
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 226K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -133K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 141K
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (was 5.1%)
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 48.1
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 1.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.1
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.3
Durable Goods Orders: 0
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (+$0.2B d/d)
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