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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 14:24 UTC
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.06M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 14:07 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 8K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 11:59 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.0B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 10:14 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 11 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 14:47 UTC
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations: 3.3%
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 12:05 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Aug 2026, 08:30 UTC
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: 0.9
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Aug 2026, 23:56 UTC
JP: Current Account n.s.a.: -92.3B
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 112K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -27K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 198K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 198K, prev 182K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 19:03 UTC
Consumer Credit Change: 14.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 14.2B, forecast 10.5B, prev -0.2B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 17:02 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 454
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 454, forecast 452, prev 451. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 14:03 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-07.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9%
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.4%
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.4%, prev 61.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Nonfarm Payrolls: -23K
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.2%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 12:03 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-06: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-06: $1.4B (prior day $1.6B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Trade Balance s.a.: 15.4B
DE: Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 15.4B, forecast 17.4B, prev 19.1B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 20:33 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$10.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-05: $6,748,567M, vs $6,738,190M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 16:12 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.8% (was 5.9%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.83%, revised from 5.86%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 33.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 33.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 28.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 14:15 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
Wholesale Inventories: 0.2
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 203K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 13:18 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 13:18 UTC
EU: Retail Sales (YoY): 0.7
EU: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.7, forecast 1, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 13:18 UTC
EU: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3
EU: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Unit Labor Costs: 1.3
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 199K, forecast 202K, prev 197K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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