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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 12:02 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.6B (-$0.6B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-05: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-05: $1.6B (prior day $2.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 09:33 UTC
Challenger Job Cuts: 33K
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 33K, prev 46K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 06:02 UTC
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.5
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 6.5, prev 6.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): 3.1
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) — Actual 3.1, forecast 0.3, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.48M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.48M, forecast -1.50M, prev -7.17M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:14 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-05.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.3
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 70.3, prev 67.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services New Orders Index: 57.2
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 57.2, prev 55.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Employment Index: 47.4
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 47.4, prev 51.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services PMI: 54.1
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 54.5, prev 54. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 54.5
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 54.5, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Services PMI: 54.6
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 54.6, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC
ADP Employment Change: 44K
ADP Employment Change — Actual 44K, forecast 70K, prev 98K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.3B (+$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-04: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-04: $2.3B (prior day $2.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.9%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.9%, prev -6.4%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 5.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast -0.3, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC
EU: HCOB Composite PMI: 52
EU: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52, forecast 51.9, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 07:55 UTC
DE: HCOB Services PMI: 49.8
DE: HCOB Services PMI — Actual 49.8, forecast 49.6, prev 49.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 07:55 UTC
DE: HCOB Composite PMI: 51.3
DE: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51.3, forecast 51.2, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 3.4
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 2.69M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 2.69M, forecast -2.00M, prev 3.30M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 16:13 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.9% (was 6.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.86%, revised from 6.18%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-04.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Factory Orders (MoM): -0.3
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.36M
JOLTS Job Openings — Actual 7.36M, forecast 7.40M, prev 7.59M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 13:50 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.7
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.7, prev 8.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -73.3B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -73.3B, forecast -73.0B, prev -77.6B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-03: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-03: $2.1B (prior day $2.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 6.2% (was 5.0%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 6.18%, revised from 4.95%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-03.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 70.3, prev 73. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index — Actual 56.7, prev 56.0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.8
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index — Actual 52.8, prev 49.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Actual 55.6, forecast 54, prev 53.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 13:44 UTC
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 12:11 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-31: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-31: $2.2B (prior day $1.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.2
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.2, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Retail Sales (YoY): -0.2
DE: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Retail Sales (MoM): -1.1
DE: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -1.1, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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