CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 226K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 226K, prev 230K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -133K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -133K, prev -100K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 141K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 141K, prev 136K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (was 5.1%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.02%, revised from 5.08%.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 455, forecast 453, prev 452. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: Actual 46.3, prev 45.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 4.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 48.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Actual 48.1, forecast 47.6, prev 47.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 1.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: Actual 1.6%, forecast 0.5%, prev 0.2%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: Actual 0.1, prev 1.3. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: Actual 0.3, forecast 0.6, prev 0.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Durable Goods Orders: 0
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders: Actual 0, forecast -0.4, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-24: 3.88% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-24: $0.6B (prior day $0.5B).
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: -30.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: Actual -30.6, forecast -27.4, prev -26.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.2 sigma.
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -13
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: Actual -13, forecast -16, prev -14. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$1.2B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-23: $6,747,704M, vs $6,746,548M the prior week.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 20
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: Actual 20, prev 17. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 53.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 53.0B, forecast 53.0B, prev 44.0B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.68M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales (MoM): Actual 0.68M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.61M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
New Home Sales Change (MoM): 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales Change (MoM): Actual 6.4, prev -10.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Current Account: -246.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Current Account: Actual -246.0B, forecast -255.0B, prev -226.8B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 202K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 202K, prev 203K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 197K, forecast 201K, prev 196K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.72M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.72M, forecast 1.75M, prev 1.73M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-23: 3.87% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-23: $0.5B (prior day $0.5B).
Germany · IFO – Expectations: 90.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Expectations: Actual 90.4, forecast 89.3, prev 89.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 89.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: Actual 89.5, forecast 89, prev 88.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 89.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: Actual 89.9, forecast 89, prev 88.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.97M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual 2.97M, forecast -0.70M, prev -0.64M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.69M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual -1.69M, prev 0.79M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.35M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.35M, prev 0.68M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -0.43M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -0.43M, prev 1.58M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-23.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 58.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 58.4, prev 56. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P Global Services PMI: 58.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 58.7, forecast 56, prev 56.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 57
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 57, forecast 53.5, prev 53.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-22: 3.87% (prior 3.85%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-22: $0.5B (prior day $0.6B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -1.5%, prev -4.1%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 51.7, forecast 52, prev 52.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
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