S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 57
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 57, forecast 53.5, prev 53.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-22: 3.87% (prior 3.85%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-22: $0.5B (prior day $0.6B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -1.5%, prev -4.1%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 51.7, forecast 52, prev 52.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52, forecast 51.4, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 51.7, prev 52.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 53
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 53, forecast 51.7, prev 51.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52.7, forecast 52.7, prev 52.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.1, forecast 51.5, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 52.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 52.9, forecast 50, prev 49.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 53.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 54.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.8, prev 51.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 1.79M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual 1.79M, forecast -0.50M, prev 7.14M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -16.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: Actual -16.5, forecast -16, prev -15.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: Actual -2, forecast 5, prev 4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 7.6, prev 8.5. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: Actual 20K, prev 16K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.85% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-21: 3.85% (prior 3.85%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-21: $0.6B (prior day $0.6B).
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.04
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Actual -0.04, prev -0.08. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.85% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (+$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-18: 3.85% (prior 3.85%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-18: $0.6B (prior day $0.3B).
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -100K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -100K, prev -76K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 230K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 230K, prev 232K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 136K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 136K, prev 137K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 451, prev 450. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Capacity Utilization: 76.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.4, prev 76.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.85% (+23bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$5.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-17: 3.85% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-17: $0.3B (prior day $5.4B).
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.7, forecast 1.9, prev 2.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual 0.6, forecast -0.2, prev -0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 2.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 2.4, forecast 1.9, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.5, forecast -0.2, prev -0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.1, prev 3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.4, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1.25
ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Actual 1.25, forecast 1.25, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 2, forecast 1.8, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 1.9. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.7, prev 1.8. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$5.9B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-16: $6,746,548M, vs $6,740,619M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.1% (was 5.1%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.08%, revised from 5.10%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 44.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 44.0B, forecast 49.0B, prev 40.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -4.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -4.7, prev -2.2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
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