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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.8
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.7, prev 2.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.8
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.8, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC
Fed Interest Rate Decision: 3.75%
Fed Interest Rate Decision — Actual 3.75%, forecast 3.75%, prev 3.75%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -7.17M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -7.17M, forecast -2.50M, prev 2.01M. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 14:13 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-29.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 12:13 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-28: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-28: $1.1B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.4%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -6.4%, prev 1.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.30M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 3.30M, forecast -1.50M, prev 2.60M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:33 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.5% (was 1.6%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.54%, revised from 1.58%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:07 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-28.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 5, forecast 10, prev 4. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:08 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 7.8. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:02 UTC
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 1.6
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 1.3, prev 1.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:02 UTC
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Wholesale Inventories: 0.3
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Goods Trade Balance: -101.5B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -101.5B, forecast -98.0B, prev -106.5B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:18 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 15K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 15K, prev 16K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:12 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.7B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-27: $1.4B (prior day $0.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:59 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.6% (was 1.7%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.58%, revised from 1.68%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 1.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index — Actual 1.3, prev 0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:14 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-27.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.9
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.9, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.3
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 0.3, prev -4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders: 0.3
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 0.3, forecast 1.6, prev -4.5. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.6
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.9, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-24: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-24: $0.7B (prior day $0.9B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 82K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 82K, prev 63K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -39K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 184K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 184K, prev 187K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 17:01 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 14:03 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.8% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.8%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-24.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.63M
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.63M, forecast 0.61M, prev 0.58M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 53.9. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 53.6
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 53.6, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Services PMI: 53.6
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 53.6, forecast 51, prev 51.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-23: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-23: $0.9B (prior day $0.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 20:35 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$4.3B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-22: $6,747,378M, vs $6,743,028M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 19. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 32.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 32.0B, forecast 29.0B, prev 41.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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