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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -5.4
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -5.4, forecast -0.5, prev 3.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 34, forecast 35, prev 35. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Business Inventories: 0.3
Business Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.5. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.50%
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 0.50%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.70%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 214K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 214K, prev 219K. BELOW FORECAST · -357.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.82M, prev 1.81M. BELOW FORECAST · -500.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 208K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 208K, forecast 217K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -642.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.2
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 41.4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 41.4, forecast 13, prev 10.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.2
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast -0.1, prev 0.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 12:06 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-15: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-15: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: +3.0M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual +3.0M, forecast -2.60M, prev 3.00M. ABOVE FORECAST · +2240000.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 14:06 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-15.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 5.2%, prev 4.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.5%, forecast 6.2%, prev 6.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.40%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.28%
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.28%, forecast 0.00%, prev 1.10%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 15.6
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 15.6, forecast 8.8, prev 5.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 12:08 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-14: 3.63% (prior 3.60%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-14: $0.3B (prior day $0.8B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 15 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev -2.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +3.0M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual +3.0M, forecast -2.70M, prev -0.40M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1900000.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
Total Net TIC Flows: 132.2B
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 132.2B, prev 26.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 232.7B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 232.7B, forecast 128.0B, prev 103.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 14:02 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-14.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2, prev 11.5. BELOW FORECAST · -5.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.07
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.07, prev 336.121. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.95
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.95, forecast 334.7, prev 335.12. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:15 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC
Monthly Budget Statement: -120.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -120.0B, forecast -132.8B, prev -293.0B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 14:02 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.55% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$5.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-10: 3.55% (prior 3.53%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-10: $0.5B (prior day $5.8B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -43K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -43K, prev -38K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 76K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 76K, prev 110K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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