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Latest desk notes

Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC
ISM Services PMI: 54
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54, forecast 54.2, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC
Final Services PMI: 51.2
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 17:08 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 14:08 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 12:07 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 20:44 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, forecast 60.0B, prev 87.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +2250000000.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:03 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, forecast 4.20M, prev 4.17M. BELOW FORECAST · -916666.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:01 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 19:01 UTC
Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 16:10 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 16:10 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.4% (was 1.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.36%, revised from 1.19%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-07.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.5
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.5, forecast 45, prev 42.5. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 13:13 UTC
Goods Trade Balance: $-105.9B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual $-105.9B, prev $-105.8B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5%
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 11.5%, prev 10.5%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Goods and Services Trade Balance: $-77.6B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual $-77.6B, forecast $-78.0B, prev $-55.9B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:16 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 21K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 21K, prev 31K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.7B (+$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-06: 3.63% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-06: $2.7B (prior day $2.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -38K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -38K, prev -35K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 110K, prev 115K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 181K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:14 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Prices Paid: 67.7
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 67.7, prev 71.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services New Orders Index: 55.1
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 55.1, prev 57.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 51.2, prev 47.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 51.9, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-02: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-01: 3.66% (prior 3.68%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.72T, -$11.1B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-01: $6,724,564M, vs $6,735,645M the prior week.
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