Intrigued to hear everyone thoughts on when they think a full deal will be executed between Iran & US. It has been going on now for months, with no clear objectives.
Interesting times, and a different path for trading rates and equities once we are out of this narrative.
6 REPLIES
I have a feeling that it will most likely continue until October, even through the time the ceasefire occurred cargo ships were still being targeted. I do see the possibility of it ending earlier because the pressure of increased price of crude oil hasn't even fully hit yet, and prices have already risen.
📈 Nico · ▲ 1 · Jul 25, 2026
Great point mate, I am surprised it has had the recent bout of aggression from Trump, was 11+ straight days of attacks. The fact US did not attack on Friday, and Pakistan has the backing of China is important, Trump has dialled it back when mediators have been involved the last few times, and the fact we have FOMC next Wednesday, i would not be surprised if he pushes for some resolution rhetoric before Wednesday to make it slightly easier for the FED. I do not think the FED will hike this meeting but if we get prolonged higher oil again, they will likely be forced to hike in September. Would love for it all to be over, and it has been back and fourth now for 5 months.
🐻 MrOrderFlow · ▲ 0 · Jul 25, 2026
Why would Trump end this war when they're profiting so heavily from the seized Venezuelan oil, with prices this high? The markets clearly aren't convinced by his words. not with just a 'ceasefire' on the table.
🌐 Altius Trading · ▲ 1 · Jul 28, 2026
Definitely something to think about, but that oil would be profiting anyways regardless of oil, the market cannot have higher rates when the whole stock market has been pumped on AI spendout, raising rates would tighten credit and liquidity. FED needs to stay put on Wednesday and their needs to be a more concrete deal before September or we are going to be hiking rates. I suspect Trump will calm things down by end of August.
🐻 MrOrderFlow · ▲ 0 · Jul 28, 2026
Fair but the pause lines up too well with FOMC being days out China's leaning on Pakistan to get talks restarted, that's outside pressure, not Trump choosing to de-escalate. Same setup as the June MoU 60day window, no real progress, fighting resumed. One quiet night before Fed week isn't a trend.
Fed probably sits regardless one geopolitical oil spike doesn't move a single print. But "deal by September or we hike" is doing a lot of lifting. If this round collapses like the MoU did, we're not looking at a clean binary, just elevated-for-longer.
🌐 Altius Trading · ▲ 0 · Jul 29, 2026
Seems to be that the market is pricing the war premium at the moment, and now with a miss on NFP, energy inflation trending down the way, and CPI looking to have peaked, we should get the FED staying put in September, we do have another bout of inflation and job data before Sept meeting. 5yr breakeven also not worried about inflation either. The war is definitely dragging on though, not been any escalation for a few weeks now which is positive!!
