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Treasury Yields & the Curve

As of 20 Aug 2026 19:42 UTC, the US Treasury yield curve is a bear steepener: front leg (2s5s) +2.8bp, long leg (10s30s) +4.5bp, spread change +1.7bp. Long end rising fastest, dragging the front end with it. Term premium building on inflation or supply risk. Classified by Helious from its own curve reading.

The live curve regime, the full Treasury curve, money-market anchors and risk gauges as of the 2026-08-18 close (Federal Reserve H.15 / FRED), live intraday pricing runs on the desk.

Curve regime

BEAR STEEPENER

As of 20 Aug 2026 19:42 UTC, the US Treasury yield curve is a bear steepener: front leg (2s5s) +2.8bp, long leg (10s30s) +4.5bp, spread change +1.7bp.

Long end rising fastest, dragging the front end with it. Term premium building on inflation or supply risk.

Front leg 2s5s
+2.8bp
Long leg 10s30s
+4.5bp
Spread change
+1.7bp
2s30s level
105.2bp
  • Flipped at 15:05 UTC from a bear flattener
  • Previous session (19 Aug 2026) finished as a bull flattener
  • 5-session trend to Aug 19 · BULL FLATTENER · 2Y -1bp, 30Y -5bp, 2s30s -4bp
  • Biggest mover: 10Y +4.7bp
Leg averages: front leg = avg(2Y, 5Y), long leg = avg(10Y, 30Y). Direction is the sign of the average change (falling yields = bull), shape is the sign of the long leg minus front leg change (widening = steepener). Moves inside a 0.4bp deadband on both axes read as no regime. Full methodology.

The board

2Y
4.19%
+0.0bp
5Y
4.37%
-1.0bp
10Y
4.71%
-1.0bp
30Y
5.28%
-3.0bp
2s10s
46bp
-6.0bp
3m10s
79bp
-6.0bp
Fed Funds
3.63%
+0.0bp
VIX
14.89
-0.9
HY OAS
2.73%
-2.0bp

Reading the board

The 2s10s spread is the classic recession dial; SOFR anchors the front end; term premium is what the long end charges for duration risk. Supply pressure shows up at the Treasury auctions, and the prints that move this board live on the economic data hubs.

Embed the curve regime: free

Put the live regime and the curve on your own site or newsletter page. Copy the snippet: the board reads the same classifier as this page, updates itself, and links back here. Attribution to Helious is built in.

<iframe src="https://helious.io/embed/curve" width="100%" height="260" style="border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:8px" title="US Treasury curve regime · Helious"></iframe>

FAQ

What is the US Treasury yield curve doing today?
As of 20 Aug 2026 19:42 UTC, the US Treasury yield curve is a bear steepener: front leg (2s5s) +2.8bp, long leg (10s30s) +4.5bp, spread change +1.7bp. Long end rising fastest, dragging the front end with it. Term premium building on inflation or supply risk. Helious classifies the regime from leg averages on the live tape and publishes it on the Helious rates board.
Is the Treasury yield curve steepening or flattening right now?
It is steepening. 10s30s is +4.5bp and 2s5s is +2.8bp, so the spread between them has moved +1.7bp this session. See the 2s10s spread explainer.
What is a bull flattener?
A bull flattener is yields falling across the curve (bull) with the long end falling faster than the front end, so the curve flattens. It is the classic growth-scare or duration-bid trade. The other three regimes are the bull steepener (rate cuts being priced), the bear steepener (term premium building on inflation or supply risk) and the bear flattener (hikes, or fewer cuts, being priced). See how to read the yield curve.
How does Helious classify the Treasury curve regime?
Leg averages: front leg = avg(2Y, 5Y), long leg = avg(10Y, 30Y). Direction is the sign of the average change (falling yields = bull), shape is the sign of the long leg minus front leg change (widening = steepener). Moves inside a 0.4bp deadband on both axes read as no regime. The regime is observed on the live tape rather than derived from end-of-day files, so it carries an intraday flip time and a previous-session close. Sourcing is documented in the Helious methodology.
See live intraday yields →
FOR AI AGENTS

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