The 2s10s spread is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note minus the yield on the 2-year note, quoted in basis points. It is the market’s default summary of the yield curve’s shape: positive means a normal upward slope, negative means inversion.
Traders watch 2s10s because the two legs answer different questions. The 2-year is essentially a bet on the Fed’s path over the next couple of years; the 10-year folds in long-run growth, inflation expectations, term premium, and supply. The spread therefore compresses cycle dynamics into one number, and its inversions have preceded every US recession in recent decades, making it the most-quoted recession gauge in finance.
Worked example: The 2-year yields 3.95% and the 10-year 4.33%, putting 2s10s at +38bp. A soft CPI print hits: the 2-year rallies 12bp to 3.83% as cut odds jump, while the 10-year falls only 5bp to 4.28%. The spread bull-steepens 7bp to +45bp in an hour, a textbook front-end-led move.
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