Chicago Fed National Activity Index last printed -0.04 on Mon, Sep 21, 2026 against a -0.08 prior. The next release is Monday, October 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
The index takes 85 indicators that are already public and rolls them into one growth number, where zero means the economy is running at trend. So it creates no new information. It is still the cleanest single number to reach for when the argument is about where the cycle sits, and the three-month average crossing -0.70 is the classic model-based recession signal. That threshold is why it gets quoted once the data starts rolling over.
On the day it almost never moves Treasuries, because every input in it is already public. It confirms the regime rather than telling you anything new. That still counts at the front end, where the shortest-maturity Treasuries sit. A three-month average sliding toward -0.70 hardens the recession bid there. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.04 | — | -0.08 | — | ABOVE PRIOR | |
| -0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | BELOW PRIOR | |
| -0.02 | — | -0.10 | — | ABOVE PRIOR |
The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
| PERIOD | VALUE (INDEX) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 0.1 | -0 | +0.1 | |
| -0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | +0.2 | |
| -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | |
| 0.2 | -0.1 | +0.3 | |
| -0.1 | -0.1 | -0 |
These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.
Monthly, ~three to four weeks after the reference month · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.
