Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Release Dates, Results & History
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations last printed 4 on Fri, Aug 28, 2026 against a 4.3 consensus forecast and a 4.3 prior, a -2 standard-deviation surprise. The next release is Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
This is the year-ahead inflation number the market actually trades inside the consumer survey. The Fed monitors it explicitly for de-anchoring risk and Powell has cited it at pressers, so a few tenths of upside can shift the policy conversation on its own. It is survey-based and gasoline-sensitive, so desks read spikes against pump prices before calling them a regime change.
The trend, at a glance
How it moves Treasuries
A jump in year-ahead expectations is bearish Treasuries: de-anchoring fear reprices the Fed path and inflation risk premium. Soft prints support the bond bid, especially when cuts are live. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | -2.00 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 4.3 | — | 4.2 | +0.67 | ABOVE FORECAST | |
| 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | — | ON THE SCREWS | |
| 4.2 | — | 4.6 | — | BELOW PRIOR |
The 4 most recent prints from the desk's live capture (began July 2026), a sample. Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed; the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (%) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.6% | -0.4% | |
| 4.6% | 4.8% | -0.2% | |
| 4.8% | 4.7% | +0.1% | |
| 4.7% | 3.8% | +0.9% | |
| 3.8% | 3.4% | +0.4% | |
| 3.4% | 4.0% | -0.6% | |
| 4.0% | 4.2% | -0.2% | |
| 4.2% | 4.5% | -0.3% |
The most recent official rows; the chart above draws the longer series. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise the moment each number landed.
Twice monthly: preliminary mid-month Friday, final end of month, with the sentiment report · 10:00 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.