Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index last printed -2 on Tue, Sep 22, 2026 against a 5 consensus forecast and a 4 prior, a -1.17 standard-deviation surprise. The next release is Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Richmond covers the Fifth District, which runs from the Carolinas up through Maryland. Traders average five regional factory surveys into a nowcast of ISM manufacturing, a guess at the ISM number before it prints, and Richmond is one of the five. It asks about the month you are currently in, and it lands in the final week alongside the other late regionals, so it feeds the ISM whisper, the unofficial forecast people position off. Anything above zero is expansion. The composite itself is shipments, new orders and employment rolled together.
A strong print is mildly bearish Treasuries, though no single regional survey moves rates by itself. What traders play is the sweep. When the month's regionals all lean the same way, ISM expectations and yields move before the ISM print lands. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 5 | 4 | -1.17 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 4 | 7 | 5 | -0.50 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 5 | 10 | 4 | -0.83 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Monthly, ~fourth Tuesday for the current month · 10:00 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.
