Trade Balance last printed -73.3B on Tue, Aug 4, 2026 against a -73.0B consensus forecast and a -77.6B prior, a -0.07 sigma surprise. The next release is Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Economic Analysis / US Census Bureau, captured live by Helious.
Net exports feed directly into GDP arithmetic, so trade-gap swings move quarterly growth trackers like GDPNow, sometimes by full tenths. Tariff regimes have made this release live again: import front-running and payback distort the deficit and whipsaw GDP estimates. The advance goods version lands earlier and often steals the reaction.
Direction is ambiguous for bonds: a wider deficit cuts GDP tracking (mildly bullish) but can also signal strong import demand. Reaction is usually via GDP-tracker revisions rather than the print itself. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Aug 4, 2026 | -73.3B | -73.0B | -77.6B | -0.07σ | ON THE SCREWS |
| Tue, Jul 28, 2026 | -101.5B | -98.0B | -106.5B | -1.17σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Tue, Jul 7, 2026 | $-105.9B | — | $-105.8B | -0.03σ | ON THE SCREWS |
| Tue, Jul 7, 2026 | $-77.6B | $-78.0B | $-55.9B | +0.10σ | ON THE SCREWS |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE ($M) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | -$73.3B | -$77.6B | +$4.4B |
| 2026-05-01 | -$77.6B | -$54.6B | -$23.1B |
| 2026-04-01 | -$54.6B | -$56.6B | +$2.0B |
| 2026-03-01 | -$56.6B | -$55.0B | -$1.6B |
| 2026-02-01 | -$55.0B | -$54.2B | -$0.8B |
| 2026-01-01 | -$54.2B | -$76.1B | +$21.9B |
| 2025-12-01 | -$76.1B | -$63.9B | -$12.2B |
| 2025-11-01 | -$63.9B | -$37.4B | -$26.5B |
| 2025-10-01 | -$37.4B | -$59.4B | +$22.0B |
| 2025-09-01 | -$59.4B | -$59.6B | +$0.2B |
| 2025-08-01 | -$59.6B | -$75.1B | +$15.4B |
| 2025-07-01 | -$75.1B | -$58.7B | -$16.4B |
| 2025-06-01 | -$58.7B | -$66.7B | +$8.1B |
| 2025-05-01 | -$66.7B | -$60.3B | -$6.4B |
| 2025-04-01 | -$60.3B | -$133.0B | +$72.6B |
| 2025-03-01 | -$133.0B | -$117.1B | -$15.9B |
| 2025-02-01 | -$117.1B | -$124.7B | +$7.6B |
| 2025-01-01 | -$124.7B | -$96.8B | -$27.9B |
| 2024-12-01 | -$96.8B | -$79.8B | -$17.1B |
| 2024-11-01 | -$79.8B | -$75.8B | -$4.0B |
| 2024-10-01 | -$75.8B | -$83.3B | +$7.5B |
| 2024-09-01 | -$83.3B | -$71.2B | -$12.1B |
| 2024-08-01 | -$71.2B | -$77.0B | +$5.8B |
| 2024-07-01 | -$77.0B | -$71.3B | -$5.7B |
| 2024-06-01 | -$71.3B | -$70.3B | -$1.0B |
| 2024-05-01 | -$70.3B | -$70.9B | +$0.6B |
| 2024-04-01 | -$70.9B | -$61.9B | -$8.9B |
| 2024-03-01 | -$61.9B | -$63.3B | +$1.3B |
| 2024-02-01 | -$63.3B | -$63.9B | +$0.7B |
| 2024-01-01 | -$63.9B | -$61.3B | -$2.6B |
| 2023-12-01 | -$61.3B | -$64.3B | +$3.0B |
| 2023-11-01 | -$64.3B | -$64.2B | -$0.1B |
| 2023-10-01 | -$64.2B | -$59.1B | -$5.1B |
| 2023-09-01 | -$59.1B | -$58.1B | -$1.0B |
| 2023-08-01 | -$58.1B | -$62.1B | +$4.0B |
| 2023-07-01 | -$62.1B | -$62.4B | +$0.3B |
Official published series (BOPGSTB) via FRED, Bureau of Economic Analysis / US Census Bureau data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / US Census Bureau · released monthly, ~first week for the month two prior at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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