ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026
In July the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased to 3.5%, from 3.6% in June. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased, to 2.9% from 3.0%, as did median expectations for inflation three years ahead, to 2.7% from 2.8%. Median expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged, at 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months was unchanged and remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in higher-income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
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Survey expectations data is backward-looking and rarely moves markets on its own without a surprise shift in inflation or rate-cut odds.