Initial Jobless Claims: 187K, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Thu 23 Jul 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-07-22): 2s 4.31% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.15% (+2.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-07-22): VIX 16.64, 2s10s +36bp.

Narrative: Trump’s dubious nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia

What mattered:

Initial Jobless Claims: 187K
Ten-Year Jumps To Highest Levels Since Early 2025
Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher
The story gets worse: 30 year mortgage rates reach the highest level since August 2025
Average 30-year US mortgage rate climbs to 6.58%, highest level in nearly a year

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