This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul, 10s -5bp · desk brief, Tue 04 Aug 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp.

Narrative: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump calls off Iran attack, oil and bond yields ease

What mattered:

• This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Could Raise Rates in 2026

• Treasuries Rise as Falling Oil Prices Trim Fed Rate-Hike Wagers

• German 2 Yr Schatz Yield Actual 2.78 (Forecast -, Previous 1.1)

• One Word Repeated 10 Times by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Effectively Reshaped the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Approach

• Alarming missile report draws forceful response from Trump as Iran war tests America’s arsenal