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DAILY BRIEF 29 Sept 2026, 21:05 UTC

Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush, 10s +7bp · Tue 29 Sep 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-09-28): 2s 4.92% (+11.0bp), 10s 5.24% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.56% (+7.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-09-28): VIX 16.07, 2s10s +32bp.

Narrative: Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief, Tehran says ready for talks

What mattered:

• Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush

• Traders trim bets on October Fed rate hike, see just one Fed rate hike by year-end after Fed's Williams says 'no urgency' on Fed action

• Fed’s Musalem says policy still accommodative as demand fuels inflation

• New York Fed's Williams sees one more rate hike late this year

• Fed's Williams: The Fed must make sure high inflation does not become entrenched.

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