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Daily brief 20 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC

The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia, 10s +6bp

Tue 20 Oct 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-10-19): 2s 4.77% (+3.0bp), 10s 5.15% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.48% (+5.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-10-19): VIX 18.44, 2s10s +38bp.

Narrative: Canadian Dollar holds gains against subdued US Dollar as Fed pause expectations rise

What mattered:

The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia
US September pending home sales -7.3% vs -0.5% expected
Fed will hike Fed funds rate in December 2026, said all 100 economists - Poll.
Poll: Fed to hike fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% by end-2026, said 94 of 100 economists (vs 29 of 76 expecting that rate in September)
U.S. oil surges to top $110, Brent crude at five-month high amid Mideast tensions

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