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DESK NOTE

US-Iran agree ceasefire deal, sinks Oil 🛢️🛢️

By Helious Desk : machine-captured, methodology-governed market data. How we capture prints →

If ceasefire is agreed further, then this will take war premium out the market, if we get a weak PCE number, and a weak NFP report then hike bets will start to be pushed out till March 27. Trump Administration wants to get the Iran war over before the mid terms to help not loosing the house / senate. Big few weeks ahead for geopolitical tensions and data that will shape the market for the next few months. Cool inflation numbers, with weaker jobs and less war pressure then we steepen and take hikes off the table, and treasuries go bid. On the contrary, if we see war escalation, hot inflation, and strong job numbers, then we will be adding hikes and flattening the curve with treasuries selling off. Some bets sitting in SR3 for a hike in Sept still, and don't forget Bessant still has not shown his hand in how much more they will be supporting the long end buy backs. Equites will continue the rally past all time highs if we steepen, get a decent print for NVDIA and take some cuts off the table. AI cap ex needs cheaper money to continue the stream train. Keep eyes peeled on the above.

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