ECB wage tracker at 2.7% in Q1 2027, indicating stable negotiated wage pressures
The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 44.3% of employees in participating countries) and of 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 28.4%). The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended up to March 2027. As new agreements are being signed and coverage of contracts reaching 2027 is gradually increasing, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be further extended to the second quarter of 2027 in the September 2026 data release. Compared with the June 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments remains broadly unchanged for 2026, with new agreements not leading to a material change in the assessment of negotiated wage pressures for this year.
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ECB wage tracker 2.7% Q1 2027 signals contained wage pressure; modest dovish tilt.