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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:15 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 14 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 13 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
ANZ on FOMC & US Data, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Mon 13 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-10): 2s 4.21% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-10): VIX 15.03, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: Fed's Waller: Not interested i…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC
Monthly Budget Statement: -120.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -120.0B, forecast -132.8B, prev -293.0B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 13 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — STRONG
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.11 (avg 2.75), high 3.992%, indirect 66.5% (avg 58.3), direct 8.1% (avg 7.1), dealer 25.4% (avg 34.6). STRONG demand → bonds BULLISH.
TREASURY AUCTION 13 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 2.84 (avg 2.59), high 3.849%, indirect 56.8% (avg 51.0), direct 8.2% (avg 6.2), dealer 35.0% (avg 42.7). STRONG demand → bonds BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 14:02 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 13 Jul 2026, 12:02 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.55% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$5.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-10: 3.55% (prior 3.53%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-10: $0.5B (prior day $5.8B).
DAILY BRIEF 12 Jul 2026, 18:10 UTC
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday — US data & auctions, w/c 13 Jul 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 13 July 2026 — 34 scheduled US events, 12 high-impact, 6 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-We…
DAILY BRIEF 10 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
French inflation confirmed to fall in June, easing pressure on the ECB, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Fri 10 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-09): 2s 4.16% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.54% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.05% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-09): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +38bp. Narrative: Fed's Williams expects energy …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -43K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -43K, prev -38K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 76K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 76K, prev 110K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC
ISM Services PMI: 54
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54, forecast 54.2, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC
Final Services PMI: 51.2
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 17:08 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 14:08 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 10 Jul 2026, 12:07 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).
DAILY BRIEF 09 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
US Existing Home Sales Dip as Affordability Concerns Linger, 10s +1bp — desk brief, Thu 09 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-08): 2s 4.21% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-08): VIX 16.9, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: European morning session wrap: …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 20:44 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.
TREASURY AUCTION 09 Jul 2026, 17:08 UTC
30-Year Bond auction — IN LINE
30-Year Bond auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.44 (avg 2.53), high 5.058%, stopped through 0.3bp, indirect 77.7% (avg 68.5), direct 12.2% (avg 23.2), dealer 10.1% (avg 8.3). IN LINE demand …
TREASURY AUCTION 09 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — STRONG
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 2.95 (avg 2.88), high 3.706%, indirect 74.6% (avg 63.7), direct 4.5% (avg 3.1), dealer 21.0% (avg 33.2). STRONG demand → bonds BULLISH.
TREASURY AUCTION 09 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — WEAK
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — WEAK. B/C 2.64 (avg 2.90), high 3.691%, indirect 56.6% (avg 68.8), direct 4.6% (avg 3.2), dealer 38.8% (avg 28.1). WEAK demand → bonds BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, forecast 60.0B, prev 87.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +2250000000.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:03 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, forecast 4.20M, prev 4.17M. BELOW FORECAST · -916666.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 09 Jul 2026, 12:01 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).
DAILY BRIEF 08 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Colombian Inflation Accelerates to Two-Year High of 6.14%, 10s +7bp — desk brief, Wed 08 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-07): 2s 4.19% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.55% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.05% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-07): VIX 16.13, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: European morning session wrap:…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 19:01 UTC
Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 08 Jul 2026, 17:10 UTC
10-Year Note auction — STRONG
10-Year Note auction — STRONG. B/C 2.59 (avg 2.44), high 4.580%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 81.5% (avg 66.9), direct 10.7% (avg 21.8), dealer 7.8% (avg 11.3). STRONG demand → …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 16:10 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.
TREASURY AUCTION 08 Jul 2026, 15:35 UTC
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — STRONG
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.41 (avg 2.85), high 3.891%, indirect 69.6% (avg 56.4), direct 4.5% (avg 4.8), dealer 25.9% (avg 38.8). STRONG demand → bonds BULLISH.
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