Nonfarm Payrolls: 162K, 10s -2bp · desk brief, Fri 04 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-03): 2s 4.34% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.77% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.25% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-03): VIX 14.32, 2s10s +43bp.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -76K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -76K, prev -68K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 228K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 228K, prev 243K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 130K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 130K, prev 123K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 449
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 449, prev 447. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-04.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.7%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.6%, prev 61.4%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.1%, prev 4.1%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Payrolls: 162K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual 162K, forecast 56K, prev -23K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Average Weekly Hours: 34.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.4, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.1%, forecast 3.0%, prev 3.2%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.30%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.10%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-03: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-03: $0.7B (prior day $0.5B).
Eurozone · Retail Sales (YoY): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.6, forecast 1.1, prev 0.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast 0.3, prev -0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 13.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 13.1, prev 6.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) — Actual 2.5, forecast 0.3, prev 3.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed’s Waller says safety premium for Treasuries is gone, pushing neutr · desk brief, Thu 03 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-02): 2s 4.39% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.79% (+0.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-02): VIX 15.2, 2s10s +43bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$6.3B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-02: $6,737,204M, vs $6,730,912M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.7% (was 4.8%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.75%, revised from 4.82%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $85B on offer, B/C 3.02 (avg 2.74), high 3.750% (inv 3.824%), indirect 70.2% (avg 56.2), direct 4.6% (avg 4.5), dealer 25.2% (avg 39.2). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.97 (avg 2.77), high 3.700% (inv 3.762%), indirect 67.6% (avg 62.5), direct 3.4% (avg 4.4), dealer 29.0% (avg 33.1).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 30.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 30.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 15.0B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-03.
ISM Services Prices Paid: 72.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 72.6, prev 70.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services New Orders Index: 60.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 60.9, prev 57.2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Services Employment Index: 47.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 47.8, prev 47.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Services PMI: 55.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI — Actual 55.4, forecast 54.3, prev 54.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.5, forecast 56.8, prev 56.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, forecast 56, prev 56. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: -119.6B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -119.6B, prev -118.8B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Unit Labor Costs: 1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.3, prev 1.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 1.4, prev 1.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -88.6B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -88.6B, forecast -90.0B, prev -73.3B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 207K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 207K, prev 206K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 205K, prev 203K. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-02: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-02: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
Challenger Job Cuts: 53K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 53K, prev 33K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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