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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 08 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 07 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
US Trade Deficit Widens to Biggest in More Than a Year — desk brief, Tue 07 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-06): 2s 4.13%, 10s 4.48%, 30s 4.99%. Tape (close 2026-07-06): VIX 15.57, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: A week later and not much has changed with the Strait of …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 07 Jul 2026, 17:10 UTC
3-Year Note auction — IN LINE
3-Year Note auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.60 (avg 2.61), high 4.179%, stopped through 0.6bp, indirect 67.5% (avg 62.5), direct 24.8% (avg 22.5), dealer 7.7% (avg 15.0). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 16:10 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.4% (was 1.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.36%, revised from 1.19%.
TREASURY AUCTION 07 Jul 2026, 15:35 UTC
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction — IN LINE
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 3.14 (avg 3.29), high 4.032%, indirect 60.1% (avg 66.3), direct 4.6% (avg 3.3), dealer 35.3% (avg 30.4). IN LINE demand → bonds BEARISH…
TREASURY AUCTION 07 Jul 2026, 15:35 UTC
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.74 (avg 3.00), high 3.701%, indirect 63.5% (avg 62.5), direct 2.7% (avg 4.0), dealer 33.8% (avg 33.4). IN LINE demand → bonds BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-07.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.5
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.5, forecast 45, prev 42.5. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 13:13 UTC
Goods Trade Balance: $-105.9B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual $-105.9B, prev $-105.8B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5%
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 11.5%, prev 10.5%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Goods and Services Trade Balance: $-77.6B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual $-77.6B, forecast $-78.0B, prev $-55.9B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:16 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 21K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 21K, prev 31K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 07 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.7B (+$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-06: 3.63% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-06: $2.7B (prior day $2.2B).
DAILY BRIEF 06 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Copper and Aluminum Advance on Fading Expectations for Rate Hike, 10s +1bp — desk brief, Mon 06 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-02): 2s 4.14% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.49% (+1.0bp), 30s 4.98% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-02): VIX 15.81, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Barely Ma…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -38K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -38K, prev -35K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 110K, prev 115K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 20:42 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 181K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 06 Jul 2026, 15:44 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.58 (avg 2.67), high 3.823%, indirect 48.5% (avg 53.0), direct 7.7% (avg 6.1), dealer 43.8% (avg 40.9). IN LINE demand → bonds BEARIS…
TREASURY AUCTION 06 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — STRONG
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.05 (avg 2.70), high 3.960%, indirect 59.8% (avg 57.9), direct 9.6% (avg 6.9), dealer 30.5% (avg 35.2). STRONG demand → bonds BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:14 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Prices Paid: 67.7
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 67.7, prev 71.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services New Orders Index: 55.1
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 55.1, prev 57.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 51.2, prev 47.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 51.9, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 06 Jul 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-02: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-01: 3.66% (prior 3.68%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.72T, -$11.1B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-01: $6,724,564M, vs $6,735,645M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-03.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Jul 2026, 21:19 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.2% (prior quarter 1.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.19%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 22:08 UTC
Consumer Confidence: 91.3
Consumer Confidence — Actual 91.3, forecast 94.4, prev 93.1. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 17:01 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 440. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +76.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +76.0Bcf, forecast 81, prev 76. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Factory Orders (MoM): -1.3%
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast -1.8%, prev 4.8%. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9, prev 8.1. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.5, prev 61.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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