Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: WEAK
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 11.6
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.3B d/d)
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.9
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 2
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): 2.4
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): 4
Week ahead: ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday, ADP Employment Change Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 31 Aug 2026
Wall Street Piles On Rate-Hike Bets as Warsh Renews Hawkish Tone, 10s +1bp · desk brief, Fri 28 Aug 2026
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -68K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 123K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 243K
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 447
Chicago PMI: 47.1
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 51.5
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.7
Hammock hawkish comments - she is the most hawkish on the board, so market discounts her chatter. All eyes on Warsh.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.2B d/d)
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.23
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 98.4
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
Germany · Unemployment Change: 4K
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.4
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
Fed-Treasury ‘Regime Change’ May Fuel Bond Rally, Citrini Says, 10s +2bp · desk brief, Thu 27 Aug 2026
Fed balance sheet $6.73T, -$14.8B w/w — QT run-off continues
7-Year Note auction: IN LINE
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