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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 222K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 222K, prev 224K. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, forecast 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.5%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.4%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 220K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.3%, prev 4.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Nonfarm Payrolls: 57K
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual 57K, forecast 110K, prev 172K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.30%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 02 Jul 2026, 06:01 UTC
Total Vehicle Sales: 16.500M
Total Vehicle Sales — Actual 16.500M, forecast 16.1M, prev 16.100M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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