ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -0.3
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.3, prev 4.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -5.4
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -5.4, forecast -0.5, prev 3.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 34, forecast 35, prev 35. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Business Inventories: 0.3
Business Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.5. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.50%
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 0.50%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.70%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 214K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 214K, prev 219K. BELOW FORECAST · -357.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.81M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 208K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 208K, prev 215K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.2
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 41.4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 41.4, forecast 13, prev 10.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.2
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast -0.1, prev 0.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-15: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-15: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
DAILY BRIEF
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%, 10s -4bp — desk brief, Wed 15 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-14): 2s 4.18% (-8.0bp), 10s 4.58% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.08% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-14): VIX 16.5, 2s10s +40bp. Narrative: Fed's Chair Warsh: The labor ma…
TREASURY AUCTION
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $72B on offer, B/C 3.35 (avg 2.92), high 3.845%, indirect 60.0% (avg 58.6), direct 6.1% (avg 4.8), dealer 33.8% (avg 36.6). STRONG demand → …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: +3.0M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual +3.0M, prev 3.00M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-15.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 5.2%, prev 4.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.5%, forecast 6.2%, prev 6.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.40%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.28%
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.28%, forecast 0.00%, prev 1.10%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 15.6
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 15.6, forecast 8.8, prev 5.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-14: 3.63% (prior 3.60%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-14: $0.3B (prior day $0.8B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev -2.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF
Inflation has biggest drop since 2020, 10s +6bp — desk brief, Tue 14 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-13): 2s 4.26% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.62% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.1% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-13): VIX 17.16, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: Fed's Waller: Not interested in…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +3.0M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual +3.0M, prev -0.40M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Net TIC Flows: 132.2B
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 132.2B, prev 26.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 232.7B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 232.7B, forecast 128.0B, prev 103.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE. $95B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 3.00), high 3.706%, indirect 72.4% (avg 64.9), direct 1.7% (avg 3.6), dealer 25.9% (avg 31.5). IN LINE demand, no directi…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-14.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2, prev 11.5. BELOW FORECAST · -5.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.07
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.07, prev 336.121. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.95
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.95, forecast 334.7, prev 335.12. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF
ANZ on FOMC & US Data, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Mon 13 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-10): 2s 4.21% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-10): VIX 15.03, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: Fed's Waller: Not interested i…
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