UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.3, prev 4.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Retail Sales Control Group: -0.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual -0.40%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-13: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-13: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EU: Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$11.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-12: $6,759,955M, vs $6,748,567M the prior week.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 36.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 36.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 33.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-13.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.7%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 4.9%, prev 5.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.00%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev -0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims: 209K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 209K, forecast 202K, prev 199K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-12: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-12: $0.7B (prior day $1.2B).
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.0σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Monthly Budget Statement: -432.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -432.0B, forecast -346.0B, prev -120.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 17.42M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.79
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.10%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: 3.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 9.07M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.06M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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