Redbook Index (YoY): 7.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, prev 8.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Import Price Index (YoY): 5.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.9%, prev 7.1%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2%, prev 10.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -4.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM): 1.44M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.44M, forecast 1.37M, prev 1.37M. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): -1.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast 0.2%, prev -0.6%. BELOW FORECAST · -5.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): -0.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.24M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.24M, forecast 1.35M, prev 1.43M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 10K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 10K, prev 8K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-17: 3.66% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-17: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 31.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 31.4, forecast 25.4, prev 23.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.2, forecast 30, prev 26.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -61.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -61.1, forecast -68.8, prev -77.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Claimant Count Rate: 4.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.3, prev 4.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Claimant Count Change: -11K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Claimant Count Change — Actual -11K, forecast 11K, prev 7K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.5σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Employment Change (3M): 83K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Employment Change (3M) — Actual 83K, prev 147K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 4.8, prev 4.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 4.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 4.1, forecast 4.1, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
US Bond Selloff Drives 30-Year Yields to Highest Since 2007, 10s +5bp · desk brief, Mon 17 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-14): 2s 4.17% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.68% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-14): VIX 14.25, 2s10s +51bp.
Total Net TIC Flows: 133.5B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 133.5B, prev 132.2B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 172.7B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 172.7B, forecast 151.4B, prev 232.7B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.97 (avg 3.01), high 3.780% (inv 3.907%), indirect 64.9% (avg 59.3), direct 10.5% (avg 9.8), dealer 24.6% (avg 30.9).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.86 (avg 2.83), high 3.715% (inv 3.802%), indirect 53.8% (avg 56.6), direct 6.8% (avg 7.0), dealer 39.4% (avg 36.5).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-17.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 35
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 35, forecast 33, prev 34. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 20.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 20.6, forecast 11, prev 15.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.5B).
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY): 2.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.4, prev 3.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.5, prev 0.5. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.1, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Week ahead: FOMC Meeting Minutes Wednesday, FOMC Minutes Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 17 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 17 August 2026 — 21 scheduled US events, 4 high-impact, 8 Treasury auctions.
Retail Sales Control Group: -0.40%, 10s -5bp · desk brief, Fri 14 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-13): 2s 4.15% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.21% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-13): VIX 14.63, 2s10s +51bp.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 218K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 218K, prev 198K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 99K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 99K, prev 112K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: 11K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual 11K, prev -27K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 455, prev 454. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.3% (was 5.8%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.31%, revised from 5.83%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-14.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51, forecast 54.5, prev 55.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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