Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 50.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 50.6, prev 55.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Business Inventories: 0
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Business Inventories — Actual 0, forecast 0.1, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.3, prev 4.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales Control Group: -0.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual -0.40%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-13: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-13: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EU: Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
S&P 500 Hits Record as Inflation Cools | Closing Bell, 10s -2bp · desk brief, Thu 13 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-12): 2s 4.2% (-2.0bp), 10s 4.68% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.24% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-12): VIX 14.55, 2s10s +48bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$11.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-12: $6,759,955M, vs $6,748,567M the prior week.
30-Year Bond auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $25B on offer, B/C 2.39 (avg 2.43), high 5.216%, tailed 0.4bp (avg -0.2bp), indirect 66.8% (avg 67.0), direct 21.6% (avg 22.5), dealer 11.5% (avg 10.6).
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.85 (avg 2.71), high 3.665% (inv 3.737%), indirect 56.5% (avg 60.1), direct 6.1% (avg 4.5), dealer 37.4% (avg 35.3).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.70), high 3.625% (inv 3.686%), indirect 57.1% (avg 60.6), direct 7.9% (avg 4.4), dealer 35.0% (avg 34.9).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 36.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 36.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 33.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-13.
Helious Squawk - FED Hammock Speech:
DESK NOTE
Hammock is a massive hawk, she is one of the most hawkish members on the board, she would rather hike to get to 2% target than use other tools the FED has at their disposal.
Post CPI and PPI market now prices out FED rate hike in September.
DESK NOTE
Fed Funds futures now sitting at the mid point of 3.67% post inflation data. Rate hike bets reduced across the SOFR complex.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.7%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 4.9%, prev 5.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.00%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev -0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims: 209K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 209K, forecast 202K, prev 199K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-12: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-12: $0.7B (prior day $1.2B).
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.0σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
SA analyst says cooling inflation eases Fed hike fears, but debt looms, 10s -2bp · desk brief, Wed 12 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-11): 2s 4.22% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.24% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-11): VIX 15.28, 2s10s +48bp.
Monthly Budget Statement: -432.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -432.0B, forecast -346.0B, prev -120.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
10-Year Note auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $42B on offer, B/C 2.53 (avg 2.47), high 4.683%, on the screws (avg +0.3bp), indirect 76.7% (avg 71.3), direct 14.7% (avg 17.7), dealer 8.6% (avg 11.0).
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.16 (avg 3.07), high 3.755% (inv 3.855%), indirect 62.3% (avg 60.0), direct 6.6% (avg 6.2), dealer 31.1% (avg 33.7).
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 17.42M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
Energy inflation ticks down -1.48% and no outlier raises in other CPI buckets, causing a bid in bonds and equities.
DESK NOTE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.79
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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