Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.10%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.92%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$0.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: 3.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Fed Expected to Keep Raising Rates Until Inflation Cools, 10s +7bp · desk brief, Tue 11 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-10): 10s 4.72% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-10): VIX 15.46, 2s10s +47bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 9.07M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
3-Year Note auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $58B on offer, B/C 2.71 (avg 2.60), high 4.291%, stopped through 0.5bp (avg +0.0bp), indirect 64.2% (avg 64.3), direct 24.0% (avg 21.7), dealer 11.7% (avg 13.9).
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.93 (avg 2.82), high 3.670% (inv 3.737%), indirect 71.3% (avg 68.3), direct 3.2% (avg 3.4), dealer 25.6% (avg 28.3).
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.06M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 8K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.0B (-$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 99.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack expects that more than one rate hike will be n, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Mon 10 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-07): 2s 4.19% (-6.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.19% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-07): VIX 14.9, 2s10s +46bp.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.85 (avg 2.96), high 3.830% (inv 3.960%), indirect 54.5% (avg 59.6), direct 8.9% (avg 9.5), dealer 36.7% (avg 30.9).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.88 (avg 2.73), high 3.735% (inv 3.823%), indirect 57.2% (avg 53.9), direct 6.8% (avg 7.0), dealer 36.0% (avg 39.1).
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations: 3.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
JP: Current Account n.s.a.: -92.3B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 10 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 10 August 2026 — 29 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions.
Treasury yields fall as softer payrolls data lands, 10s +6bp · desk brief, Fri 07 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-06): 2s 4.25% (+7.0bp), 10s 4.69% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.22% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-06): VIX 15.15, 2s10s +44bp.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 112K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -27K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 198K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 198K, prev 182K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Credit Change: 14.2B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 14.2B, forecast 10.5B, prev -0.2B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 454
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 454, forecast 452, prev 451. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-07.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.4%, prev 61.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Nonfarm Payrolls: -23K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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